International rating agency Moody's announced on the 13th by the European debt crisis drag on, the Italian financing costs rise, the economic situation continues to deteriorate, so the country's sovereign credit rating from A3 down two steps to of Baa2 rating outlook is negative. At the same time, Moody's also pointed out that Spain exist may apply for additional external support, and the risk still further rise in the country's financial system credit losses than expected.
 
According to another report, the details of the euro zone aid program of the Spanish banking sector will be held on the 20th of eurozone finance ministers meeting to be finalized, there are still many problems to be solved.
 
Italian finance costs continued to rise
 
With the upgrade of the spread of European debt crisis, due to a lack of market confidence, the Italian finance costs may be further sudden rise, and the loss of the ability to finance in the market, Moody's said. In addition, the short term, the deteriorating economic outlook in Italy, the weak economic growth, high unemployment, unable to complete the fiscal consolidation target high risk, which would in turn further weaken the already fragile confidence of the market. Moody's expects the Italian gross domestic product (GDP) this year will fall by 2%.
 
However, Moody's lowered Italy rating a few hours, the Italian successful auction of ? 6.4 billion debt, the auction average rate of return is 4.65%, less than 5.3% of the previous time the yield. The European Commission therefore criticized the timing was not right for the Moody's lowered the rating of Italy. Italian business alliance with the Italian Federation of Industrialists President George the Si Kuizi refute Moody's downgrade action, said: "Italy's industrial manufacturing capability is much analysis of Bi Mudi much stronger."
 
British consulting investment company Investec believes that the cost of financing in Italy is indeed likely to continue higher, as Spain and Cyprus to seek EU assistance, the market will be increasingly worried about Italy may be the sixth Shenyuan Guo as the euro zone.
 
Bank of America Merrill Lynch released a research report that the debt crisis in Europe will eventually evolve to the game between Italy and Germany, and the final outcome of the game may be Italy leave the euro, while Germany has no motivation and ability to retain. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Wu David Jasen Arthur sos · Wan Nakai Dis 17 euro area member states in the report the cost-benefit analysis, research which countries benefit most from an orderly exit, the conclusion is the most The power to leave the euro zone countries are Italy and Ireland. Which, net of interest payments, Italy is a budget surplus and current account deficit of small Italian enterprises will benefit from currency depreciation. Most lack the power to leave the euro area is Germany, because of the sharp currency appreciation will result in the weak German economy, the rise in financing costs and international payments imbalances.
 
Assistance to Spain, the program still variables
 
According to Dow Jones Newswires reports, the Netherlands Ministry of Finance website on the 13th announced a euro zone aid the Spanish banking files, drafted by the euro area for interim relief fund (EFSF) officials disclosed some new details, including in what way, when paid to the Spanish aid.
 
Euro Group Juncker, chairman in the 10th euro zone finance ministers announced that the Euro Group has a scale of 100 billion euros in the Spanish banking sector rescue package details of the agreement, the first ? 30 billion of funds is expected to be disbursed before the end of July.
 
However, according to the above-mentioned documents, first of all, the first ? 30 billion of funds will not be fully paid, EFSF will be retained as part of reserves, in order to quickly pay the Spanish banking industry is facing an emergency situation; Second, the first payment of the actual time of payment may be delayed until November, when Spain will be announced bank stress test results, the outside world will be accurately informed that the restructuring of the banking sector funds needed; the second and third pen relief fund of 15 billion euros, most of the money will EFSF form of bonds rather than cash payment. In addition, the surplus amounted to 25 billion euros the Spanish bank bailout funds will be transferred to a capital management company for dealing with the Spanish banking industry toxic assets, namely the so-called "bad bank."
 
At present, the Spanish banking industry is facing serious financing problems. According to the latest data of the Bank of Spain, the country's banks to obtain loans from the European Central Bank in June from 324.6 billion euros in May to 365 billion euros, a record high.
Spanish Finance Minister Kim Doss, 13, said Spain will take up to 62 billion euros of restructuring the banking system, the money will be from 100 billion euros in aid loans, the remaining 38 billion euros will be used as a banking security blanket. Kim Doss said that Spain will change the mode of growth, the economy will be satisfactory performance in the next three years, "We will definitely repayment will not let the lender have the slightest loss.
 
In response to the crisis, the Government of Spain, last week announced a total of 65 billion euros of new round of austerity measures, including the civil service wage cuts of about 7%, and plans to cancel part of the holiday bonuses. However, analysts believe that the above two and a half austerity plan must be short-lived, because it can not break the vicious cycle of recession and fiscal imbalances. On the 14th, the budget minister of Spain Montoro said that the Spanish government will control the regional government budgets, while those who can not tighten target for these areas to provide financial support to help them avoid default occurs.



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