In the South China Sea and East China Sea, which broke out where the first shot? In principle, where the first fired the first shot, the tactical level is not determined by the Chinese, and China do not care in which the first war; but at the strategic level, China pleased to be fired the first shot to Li Guowei; in the South China Sea in the waters of Diaoyu Islands, the favorable opportunity, and constantly teaser Japan-US mobilization of Japan-US military deployment, including the South China Sea as a whole, play a strategic purpose of the checks and balances. The future, the Diaoyu Islands will be more and more active response, but does not easily lead to the waters of the local war; South China Sea, China is more passive Take, but will choose to select a breakthrough, the South China Sea issue a substantive solved.
 
East China Sea issue, although currently only involved to the Diaoyu Islands and spring Xiao Youtian, it seems relatively simple, but involves the power of a more substantive and well-matched counter-force in all respects. To solve the problem of near the Diaoyu Islands, is not occupied by force the Diaoyu Islands is so simple. If long-term occupation of the Diaoyu Islands, even if the tactics can be done easily, but will give rise to many of the strategic passive. This is because:
 
First, the Diaoyu Islands away from the Chinese mainland, Taiwan's return to a unified China does not occupy a location advantage. The Diaoyu Islands easy to attack and hard to defend its strategic cost-effective is not high, the waters of the Diaoyu Islands and Japan, a showdown, it is not easy to reach the strategic objective to defend its sovereignty. Actual occupation and the declaration of sovereignty, compared to the effective declaration of sovereignty will be China's first choice. Just think that Japan and the United States in this sea area close alliance, while not easily made in this area of ??warfare is just one part of the consideration, even if China against Japan alone will not solve the Diaoyu Islands issue easily lead to a full-scale war.
 
Second, the passage of accounting for the present situation of the Diaoyu Islands, but has the tactical level of significance, if there is a simple and temporary passage of accounting for action, but also in order to mobilize the strategic plan of the United States and Japan, greater range, more problems, get strategic interests. Therefore, China will take on the Diaoyu Islands issue tug of war and a protracted war, guerrilla warfare, but not on whether short-term occupation of the Diaoyu Islands as the ultimate goal.
 
Third, compared with the South China Sea, East China Sea issue is relatively simple and controllable. If the Chinese response rationality, wisdom, and not let the Japan-US Chinese people's patriotic enthusiasm, the single issue in a passive position in the global, and lure in this sea battle with the United States and Japan, consume China's air and sea in the waters there is no advantage force.
 
Although China has a lot do not want to full-scale conflict in the Diaoyu Islands, the US-Japan strategic considerations, but does not mean that relative to dominant and win the case in the pre-emptive and passive counter-attack surprise the enemy's military blitz action tactics. The Diaoyu Islands issue, use the form of a Coast Guard and the set range, mine areas, less practical significance and can not be further extended so that the Japanese occupation of the Diaoyu Islands, should be the minimum goal of maintain. China should still do not encourage fishermen to easily go to the waters of fishing before the no acquiescence, but should prevent the United States and Japan in the area of ??oil exploration and exploitation activities.
 
In the South China Sea issue, China is precisely do not like to carry out guerrilla warfare and a protracted war and more countries. South China Sea islands involved in the sea and the right sound cable States, and China's comprehensive strength, not one level but not selected a breakthrough, resulting from turbulence and trouble even more than the East China Sea. Compared with the East China Sea issue, Japan's energy channel security part is subject to the same energy channel security, subject to the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries. Therefore, in the South China Sea issue, China must have sufficient military and psychological preparation the Yin Nanhai problem should lead these countries of the semi-official piracy threat to the security of energy channels.
 
The South China Sea and East China Sea issue, China in the South China Sea issue, although not fully make enemies, multi-party war at the same time, but they can not continue to do gentleman-like. This will be big but not strong, anger rather than prestige. If the East China Sea issue, China will point to mobilize global, not rigidly adhere to the "point"; in the South China Sea issue, China should point to locate the "face" and more persistent in the breakthrough "point" to effectively combat. Vietnam, the Philippines, that is a strategic breakthrough in the South China Sea issue, believe that China has already confidently, I also have a lot of articles comprehensive discussion of such a breakthrough, not repeat them here (at Bi Dianlong search see my book "China to solve the South China Sea issue should kill the monkey to watch the chicken ").
 
The basis of this conclusion is because:
 
First, the countries of the South China Sea issue involved, and some of the occupied islands, to recover only a symbolic significance, but no real significance. China wants a comprehensive and substantive solve the South China Sea issue has now been taken to strengthen the Coast Guard and other administrative initiatives including the establishment of three Shashi, but also in the military, the establishment of more the fulcrum of the construction of more large ships to complete land-based building strategic energy channels.
 
Second, in the South China Sea issue, China's comprehensive strength has an absolute advantage against any country, not a problem. However, China must do a variety of war preparations in advance diplomatic, economic and other aspects. As far as possible for provocation, single issue, single solution to avoid long-term, complex.
 
Third, China must be avoided and multi-national war, the Chinese constitute a violation of national potential impacts and Yinfeng Yang, select a number of sound cable States uniform against, at least let the military and economic power to be stricken devastation strategic objectives.
 
The South China Sea, tactics, met would give them, to encourage fishermen, fishing in the Coast Guard and warships to protect the scope and time to a specific waters. Increase the difficulty and cost of the occupied islands enemy material supply in the occupied area, the Coast Guard law enforcement, made land in the occupied islands around the wreck, and effectively prevent individual countries oil and gas exploration and exploitation
 
In comparison, in the East China Sea issue, China will take the initiative, but do not seek to win substantive solutions on the Diaoyu Islands issue in the short term; in the South China Sea issue, China will be in the "surface" passive response "point" will take the initiative to layout, concentrated force, a blow that is to kill the monkey watch chicken. Send to want to be able to separately solve part of the problem is part of the problem.
 
Short, may not in the East China Sea and South China Sea, the initiative started the maintenance of the sea power of the first shot, but the maintenance of sea power are not afraid, but also do not care about other countries in the South China Sea East China Sea and whoever started this gun. From a strategic perspective, the East Overseas tight within the pine, the South China Sea is loose outside and within tight. South China Sea is China at the strategic right to maintain the first choice of a breakthrough.



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