National Bureau of Statistics announced on 13 July 2012, six months of economic data, as well as in the second quarter GDP growth; Although the single-quarter GDP growth rate of the first time in three years, broken, down 7.6 percent, but the basic line with market expectations; in environment of global economic slowdown, China's economic side is acceptable; so, the external environment faced by the steel industry there will be no major changes in the future period of time, steel prices are expected to moderate adjustment Lord .
According to the data show that ended June 31, Main market, rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coils, plate five average price of steel decreases more than 150 yuan, of which common specifications of the hot rolled coil reported that the average price of 4104 yuan, down 106 yuan over the beginning of the year; plate the average price to 4050 yuan, down 180 yuan over the beginning of the year; average price of the common specifications of the cold rolled coils at 4713 yuan, down 297 yuan over the beginning of the year. Raw materials, the nation's major markets billet average price reported 3810 yuan, down 210 yuan over the beginning of the year; the average price of imported iron ore was $ 139.07, down $ 2.17 at the beginning of the year (RMB). Subject to significantly reduce the demand for terminal steel and increased rather than decreased investment in upstream steel, crude steel production for half a year to maintain the high steel prices in the first half of the overall sharply lower.
From the data perspective, the decline in the prices of imported iron ore is still far lower than the amplitude of the finished steel; steel prices continued oversold, we believe that the possibility of post-imported iron ore prices have further to fall; In this regard, the finished product steel in the future needs of the off-season, will usher in the cost fell to boot the new one down the process; but the imported ore more strict control of the three mines is very limited, it may decrease during the year should be difficult to achieve the previously estimated dropped to $ 120 stage the bottom line.
From an economic perspective, in the face of more moderate economic slowdown; Shangqie still government controlled within the range; the latter part of the country should be rationally deal with the steady growth of this proposition; do not appear similar to the 2009 "40 000 billion investment plan. The author believes that China's economic development at this stage, we should try to avoid large-scale government investment incentives; first attention should be established projects to implement into practice. Complete has a plan such as the protection of housing projects effectively put an end to appear in 2011 concealed false behavior; such as investment in water conservancy and hydropower, railway, highway investment projects and other types of established major project to implement the good problem of financing to support its as much as possible to achieve program objectives ; be able to reach the latter part of the GDP growth rate is expected to moderate rebound.
Since our GDP growth slowdown is still recognized by the Government within the elastic range, then I believe that the late national policy guidelines may be slightly relaxed, less likely to seize the policy investment to expand the adjustment direction; then on the existing basis, post -investment in infrastructure, significant investment to further accelerate the possibility of lower; such a view, a more stable economic policies will become the main orientation of the second half of the year; the steel industry, the major favorable impact the possibility of limited, and the possibility of weak close to the trough; the suppression of the external environment on steel prices should be close to the bottom.
The steel industry, the previous major projects on time and quality started the second half of China's steel demand should be increased significantly; a backlog of six months, demand for steel will probably be in late August as temperatures lower and begin to release. Downturn in the steel city in the first half may be in the second half to be effectively alleviated.
But short-term phase of deep down there is likely to continue; recently, Baosteel, sand steel and other representatives of the domestic plate and long products price wind of the two steel mills have cut late prices; between the major steel mills because of the increased competition of the market share of the price game intensified. Sha Steel price adjustment signs of contraction, led the resistance to further price cuts to ship heavier; helplessness and terminal needs more depressed steel prices stabilize lost almost all support is unlikely.
Sent as described, we believe that late before the demand has not been a fundamental release, competition in the steel mills under the auspices of the steel prices as a whole continue to shock bottoms mainly, but under the constraints of steel per tonne of steel close to the cost down very limited space; steel prices still have a fall; down is truly bottoming moment, is not far off.



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