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Steel City endure the "winter" in order to find a "warm sun"?

As the saying goes: "does not make life difficult for the river", the steel industry would not have been so devastated, industry will always be better, therefore, businesses should not be too pessimistic. However, from the current situation, businesses must be able to endure loneliness, able to endure the "winter", but also to do a good job playing the long-term war preparation.

[Iron and steel industry information

Futures: yesterday steel main contract 1210 for the day before closing high prices open 9 yuan / ton in 4119 yuan / ton, the highest point of 4127 yuan / ton, the lowest point of 4112 yuan / ton, the closing session to close at 4122 yuan / ton. Positions to reduce the 29462 hand to 642,464 hands. Turnover of 409 160 hand, shrinkage decrease of 72,258 hands.

Spot market: According to the China steel net market monitoring, today Shanghai Shanghai spot market prices stable and fine-tuning. Q235 high line, Ф6.5-10mm Jiujiang mainstream quote 3970-3990 yuan / ton, unchanged; North 4020 yuan / ton, unchanged. Two steel Ф18-25mm transit 3920-3950 yuan / ton, unchanged; Shagang 3970-3980 yuan / ton, unchanged. Three steel, Ф18-25mm sunshine 4010-4050 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton; Cold Steel 3980-4000 yuan / ton, unchanged; Shen Special 4100-4120 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton. Disk the screw Ф8-10mm, Yonggang 4390-4400 yuan / ton; sunshine 4210-4230 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton.

Raw materials: 18 PM Tangshan billet up 10 Carbon 150 billet 3590 yuan / ton, 165 rectangular billet 3620 yuan / ton, low-alloy billet of 3710 yuan / ton tax factory, Chang Li Pu the billets cash tax sent to 3610 yuan / tons, the bare price of 3430 yuan / ton.

Inventory: According to the inventory survey, as of June 15, 2012, the country's 26 major markets five varieties of steel (rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coils and plate) social stock 1543.8 million tons, compared with the previous week down 6.1 million tons for 17 consecutive weeks, inventory decline, the decline continued to narrow. Compared to last year (June 17, 2011), the total inventory of 1.102 million tons, higher than the total inventory of rebar and wire rod is 1.622 million tons higher than last year.

The demand side: after the introduction of the stimulus, the market price of steel once minor rise, but eventually upstream or fatigue. In June, the seasonal off-season in the Steel City, the upcoming Steel City, the traditional demand and peak seasons market has basically been weakened view of the high temperatures in summer, outdoor progress of the project greatly reduced but is inevitable, in 2012 the same period last year general summer demand for steel contrarian surge of good things.

Production capacity: According to data provided by the China Steel Industry Association, 1-5 months of this year, the national pig iron, crude steel and steel products (including duplicate material) production of 277.771 million tons, 296.261 million tons and 384.006 million tons, an increase of 2.6% 2.2 percent and 6.3 percent growth rate over the same period last year dropped by 4.7,6.3 and 6.6 percentage points.

Steel mills: June 11, Baosteel announced July policy on steel prices, the overall decline, the decline in the per ton of hundred dollars or more. Which, cut by 200 yuan / ton hot-rolled products, pickling products cut by 100 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton, the general cold products generally cut by 200 yuan / ton, hot dip galvanized sheet products generally cut by 100 yuan / ton, and galvanized sheet The general decline of 100 yuan / ton, aluminum zinc plate products cut by 300 yuan / ton, July and August the price of color coated products on the basis of the price in May and June, down 200 yuan / ton. To cast a shadow over the downturn in the steel city.

June 18, the Shougang July cold pricing policy notice: cold-rolled on the basis of the price in June down to 200 yuan / ton, The acceptances enjoy six months free discount, other policy remains unchanged.

The supply side: the second quarter is the traditional steel consumption season, some countries focus on the construction project is to increase investment, and again lowered the bank deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points in the People's Bank of China May 18, to play a positive role in stimulating demand for steel will . However, due to the capacity release speed is expected late steel market is still oversupply, the volatility of steel prices will remain low, and iron and steel production can only maintain the current slow growth trend.

Cost: At present, iron and steel production iron ore, coke, coal and other raw material prices has been at a high level, the other with the national resources, energy prices, the pace of fiscal reforms to accelerate, coal, electricity, water, gas and other prices will be further enhanced, enterprise costs will continue to increase; countries to increase energy conservation efforts, corporate investment in energy saving, environmental protection is also increasing; imported iron ore prices have been volatile in the uplink; coupled with rising labor costs, high cost of iron and steel enterprises, the situation of the low efficiency difficult to change the short-term economic benefits will be significant decline compared with last year.

International market: the impact of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, the international market demand for steel recovery has been slow, the International Iron and Steel Institute April 27, 2012 global steel demand in the short term outlook, global apparent steel consumption grew by 3.6 percent this year, not only less than 2011 actual growth of 5.6%, but lower than the 5.4 percent forecast in the fourth quarter of last year. Coupled with the intensification of international trade frictions have increased and international trade protection, iron and steel products exports difficulty will further increase is expected late will not be much growth.

Institutional point of view].

Investor Futures: Recently, China's steel market positive constant stimulation of the macroeconomic policy level, there are pull is expected to rebound in the real economy; short iron and steel industry is intensive good news, and market support efforts to gradually strengthen, coupled with the demand gradually released, shift the RB1210 contract the center of gravity is expected to shock.


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