The time has come to the mid and late June, the south also announced that it officially entered the rainy season, outdoor projects across the country will be a significant reduction because of the climatic factors progress; which makes the already very sluggish steel demand facing the possibility of further tightening.
Analysts believe that the summer of this year, the steel industry will be very cold! "Do not increase in demand, production get down, more accidents, high temperature power shortage phenomenon in previous years, year after year will come this year substantial reduction in industrial electricity and the bye, is almost limited production of steel is estimated to be difficult to achieve; Steel City during the year darkest and coldest of the stock market to.
Steel City long-term weakness in steel prices is easy to fall hard up
According to market monitoring, as of June 18, the nation's major steel market average price of 6.5mm high speed wire fell 2 yuan; 25mm three threads the average price fell to 2 yuan; 5.5mm hot rolled coil price fell 7; 1.0mm cold board the average price fell 7; 20mm medium plate price fell 1; 1.0mm galvanized sheet, the average price fell 10 yuan, the the 0.47mm caitu average price was flat; 2.5mm narrow strip average price up 30 yuan; 4-inch pipe The average price rose 14 yuan, 108 * 4.5mm seamless average price drop to 5 yuan; 25 # I-beam average price up 2, 25 # channel steel price rose 1 5 # angle average price rose 9, 200 * 200H steel average price fell 3; poor market transactions, the business mentality is again weaker.
June steel stabilized, but it is in the middle of the steel trade market transactions or or terminal site procurement or incremental phenomenon did not occur; display the stabilization of steel prices more than the market mentality uplift after a series of major positive stimulus; However, the actual change of the downstream steel industry has not yet ushered in policies and funding surface loose substantive support.
In the case of long-term weakness in demand for hard from the steel prices as a whole maintain easy to fall hard up the vulnerable situation; decline in the industrial economy vulnerable, makes continuous high-yield steel is difficult to timely consumption, high productivity, high inventories, low demand tripartite backlog steel prices loose space is limited, with iron ore, steel billets and other raw material prices is difficult to rebound, the cost of steel support is weak is also constrained steel prices hard to find the reason rebounded.
Macroscopic good temporarily at the wait of steel prices, or at the pre-dawn darkness of
At this stage for the Steel City, demand for off-season, although the state in order to stop economic growth continued to decline, increased the investment stimulus is also a further loosening of macroeconomic policy; major projects from the project to bid, to the preparation, funds allocated in place a series of operations will take some time; and this part of the project even if the overall executed according to plan in place, the actual steel demand can not make up for the real estate development, machinery manufacturing and other industries due to the economically disadvantaged or industry regulation brought about by the degree of compression of steel demand, the market still hesitate.
In addition, the supreme body of financial markets, including the Banking Bureau of the CBRC, and some cities have issued a warning the steel trade and credit risk; now, despite the financial markets face relatively loose, and even the banks a substantial decline in demand for loans. But the steel trading business loan financing is still very difficult, a loan shark to maintain their operations and gone. Sexual shortage of funds flow within the industry also makes the obvious weakening of the steel trading business, the possibility of the stockpile gambling market outlook, brokering difficult for the market downturn to prop up the market, resulting in steel prices has always been calm like water.
The author believes that the 2012 turning point in the Chinese steel market price movements, should appear in the third quarter, when the first is the traditional steel consumption peak season, steel seasonal back up; more important is the time to the third quarter after a series of major investment projects will also be entered the construction period, the real demand for steel will be reflected; In addition, China's protection of major housing project after completion is very limited in the third quarter will also usher in the construction the peak period; so, we believe that when the steel in order to truly bottomed reverse.
Prior to that, market steel prices will continue to maintain low vulnerable concussion, market repeatedly inevitably, but not the possibility of the formation of the trend trend.
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