Enters in June, the Bank of China system as before worn out credit delivery ability, for hoped has sprinkled trough cold water in the new turn stimulation policy people.
On June 12, newspaper reporter the information which obtains from the authoritative channel demonstrated that, in June the first week, the labor, constructs, the agricultural four big state-owned bank addition loan only 6,600,000,000 Renminbi, the credit market as scheduled has not had the return to warmer weather situation; But the deposit has also continued the situation which before this the consistent beginning of the month recedes massively, four great line of deposits compared the end of last month to drop 272,000,000,000 Yuan largely.
The bank credit delivery microscopic performance, still could not reflect the macroscopic policy subtle change.Accepts the multi-banking industry public figures who the newspaper interviews to tell reporter, since regardless of from the financial organ general headquarters or the place branch office, May more and more many has been receiving comes from under the local authority powerful investment impulse political mobilization.
A joint stock system bank intermediate deck tells reporter, in the near future the local authority member or will be in charge of assistant deputy governor to kiss the bringing team many to various general headquarters visiting phenomenon, “four big line of situations were possibly more typical.”
The close supervising and managing organization public figure also disclosed that, will supervise and manage the organization also to study the financial organ in the near future “the steady growth” the measure, in which important then is, the financial system will need to guarantee a national Development and Planning Commission batch of project the loan demand, had Shan Yu to want the potential greatly.
The credit constitutive property is unbalanced
In May a near 800,000,000,000 Yuan additional loan data fu announcement, causes the market in an uproar, this data is higher than the market average anticipated 750,000,000,000 Yuan standards; Looking from the loan structure analysis that, in May loans the structure not to have the true improvement, the majority loans are in the end of the month final three day centralism delivery.
Looked from the structure that, in May the medium and long-term corporate loan increases 169,900,000,000 Yuan, accounts for the same month addition loan 21.4%, although these two item of setting circles slightly have the improvement compared to April, but still was in the first half year the low position; But the bill discount increases 232,000,000,000 Yuan, still occupied the nearly 30% share.
“The credit demand cannot come up, is the constitutive question.” On June 12, some joint stock system bank credit management department general manager accepts newspaper reporter when the interview like is the analysis: From call for fund end analysis, on the one hand, current because the enterprise order form reduces, the exportation postpones to cause the small and medium-sized enterprise credit demand to weaken; On the other hand, these loan demand big end of - - place financing platform, “the hard male base” and so on the big project is constructing, subsequents construction the project itself credit demand to be continuously very exuberant, but the policy controls continuously very much dies.
From the fund supplies side analysis, the majority commercial bank saves the loan compared to continuously Gao Ju not under, also adds Gao Ju the not under bank reserve against deposits rate, bank credit supplies ability obvious insufficient.
If the track Renminbi deposit each week change situation, can discover, the commercial bank deposit “the stay rod jumps” the phenomenon to be remarkable, namely erupts one to the end of the month deposit centralism, at the end of June is exactly the end of season inspection, will believe the bank system deposit to be able the seasonal large rise.
But “communicates according to us with the bank basic unit personnel, each month `stay rod jumps the' game difficulty to be more and more big, second half year will be difficult to sustain.” Some capital securities trader bank analyst like is the review road.
In June 900,000,000,000?
According to the State Council R&D center Macroscopic Economical Research department department surplus Bin's analysis, current Chinese economical bitter experience several questions are: First, will throw the financing platform to welcome the centralism also funds peak this year, the drop which the economy will grow meant the local authority financial revenue will grow large scale drop, regardless of will be eastern part, west, the middle area all may observe such phenomenon.Second, the real estate market enters the adjustment stage, mortgages a house the real estate invests after the large scale drop, the partial professions appear the big area loss.The third aspect question is because the earlier period throws the financing platform to owe the debt, again finances ability drops obviously.The fourth question is not the standard folk lends money with the bubble economy union, once appears the fund chain break, possibly initiates the big impact and the communitive event.
“The real estate market risk obvious enlarge, in fact we now the local authority, the bank formed one kind to rely on the land excessively, to rely on the real estate profession excessively the situation, if the house price appeared the great scope dropped, the bank, the local authority all will face the huge fund pressure.” Yu Bin analyzes.
Then, enters in May, “is been steady the central authorities grows places a more important position” the policy inspiration, local authority's investment warmly surges upward once again, the commercial bank is also receiving increasingly many pressures.
The multi-positions supervise and manage the public figure to disclose that, the bank supervising and managing organization policy “the trimming, the pre-set tuning”, possibly can mobilize including the bank to support Development and Planning Commission to examine and approve the project the loan demand, but supervises and manages the organization also possibly to be able to become less crowded to the railroad, the road, oneself has repays principal and interest ability financing platform project, the low end and loan limits and so on small wrap housing.
“Place financing platform, real estate, loan policies and so on hard male base all have the possibility adjustment.” Close supervising and managing public figure disclosure.
“In June will be the key month.” Observes according to the above stock good public figure, this year the place financing platform loan due returns-ratio is very high, but continues the loan rate very to be also high, “a year time changes three years time, three annual variation five years”.Continues the loan situation to have old, also taking advantage of newly also old taking advantage of new, postpones three kinds; Continues the loan rate various bank situation not one.
Looked like in the gold company that, the bank will be in facing the new examination and approval steady growth project is in a dilemma the region, finally “will have the limit” the support possibility to be big, follows the deposit to flush high in two end of quarter inertia, will increase the loan to achieve hopefully about 900,000,000,000 Yuan, meant the second quarter addition loan achieved 2,300,000,000,000 - 2,400,000,000,000, the first half year will complete the whole year to increase the loan 60%.
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