On June 7 the evening, the Chinese people very good announcement gets up a decline financial organ year time from June 8 to save the loan datum interest rate to decline 0.25 percentage point respectively, other various scales save the loan datum interest rate and individual housing common reserve fund save the loan interest rate corresponding adjustment.This reducing the interest rate propaganda starts from October, 2010 the interest on futures cycle conclusion, refracts the entity economy to be extremely murky, since simultaneously also causes the trimming measure which May has appeared one after another further to increase price.That, this reducing the interest rate will have what kind of influence regarding the steel products market, whether will boost the steel price to reverse in light of this?
The economy continues to postpone the central bank to reduce the interest rate 0.25
On June 7 the evening, the central bank decided gets up a decline financial organ year time from June 8 to save the loan datum interest rate to decline 0.25 percentage point respectively, adjusts the latter year time deposit account interest rate is 3.25%, a year time loan interest rate is 6.31%; Other various scales save the loan datum interest rate and individual housing common reserve fund save the loan interest rate corresponding adjustment.
Reduces the interest rate why regarding the central bank, the primary cause lay in the macroscopic economical data obvious economy further to postpone in recent months, for instance in April nation investment in the fixed assets speed-up fell to 20.2%, the same month industry increase in value with compared to only grows 9.3%, then in May manufacturing industry PMI the link compared to receded 2.9 percentage points to 50.4, estimated will announce on Saturday in May foreign trade data was not still optimistic.
The trimming measure appeared the steel city short-term to be still difficult one after another to reverse
This reducing the interest rate is announcing the central bank from from October, 2010 to July, 2011 interest on futures genuine knot fast, since also has caused in recent months the trimming measure battle formation enlarge.Before then, the Development and Planning Commission examination and approval project proposes fast, trimming measures and so on 26,500,000,000 energy conservation electrical appliances subsidy policy appears one after another.That, along with trimming measure and so on the reducing the interest rate one after another appearing, whether the steel price in light of this reverses? The author thought this reducing the interest rate indeed can play raises inspires the role, but psychological process relative big, although still was unable to change the market basic question, the steel price can but therefore the resilience reversed with difficulty.The reason is as follows:
First, but the reducing the interest rate truly can raise inspires reflected the economical surface is very weak.Without a doubt, since took 2010 the first time reducing the interest rate, this reducing the interest rate has moved regarding the long time the steel city to be able murkily to play raises inspires the role, but polysome present psychology stratification plane.Simultaneously we must realize soberly reflected to the reducing the interest rate the economical surface is very bad, middle ten days soon announces the data estimate can be extremely ugly, the economy worn out cannot obviously therefore a reducing the interest rate can obtain the fundamental change.Moreover, looked from the fund surface that, since this year the bank has been stricter regarding the steel trade business loan, a reducing the interest rate is also unable to change the fund difficult problem, moreover in June latter or second half of a month will be the semi-annual also funds peak.
Second, trimming measure function in market requirement time.Further postpones, the external environment facing the entity economy is extremely unstable, the country appears the measure one after another, since also mid-May has been centralized, mainly manifests in the State Council is clear about the steady growth signal, 26,500,000,000 energy conservation electrical appliances subsidy policy appearing, the Development and Planning Commission project examination and approval raises fast, as well as today central bank reducing the interest rate.Needs to pay attention, these measures belong to the trimming, but this decided its function in market demand time relative long, the short-term difficult to have the actual effect.
Third, the effective demand short-term difficult to change for the better.Since in the domestic and foreign macroscopic economic environment not ideal as well as the traditional off season dual restrictions, mainly in have entered May with the steel profession to transfer once again weakly, most remarkable manifesting is the manufacturing industry PMI link ratio drops 2.9 percentage points to 50.4.Discovered from us to the main downstream industry monitor that, in May the profession index link compares drops in abundance, in which construction profession drops 8.8 to 43.9, the machinery drops 13.4 to 40.6.At present looked that, the temperature further will rise, south the rainy season will still continue period of time, in addition the country not too possibly appeared to rescue the city measure significantly, appeared one after another the trimming measure appearance demand time, in the short-term the effective demand obviously with difficulty changed for the better.
Fourth, the output occupied highly difficult under supplies the pressure still to save.Although mid-May nation thick steel daily output link compared to drops 0.3% to 2,039,500 tons, but on the middle ten days thick steel daily output still was higher than 2,000,000 tons, since has been in the history the top digit.At the same time, the steel mill exports the order form to drop obviously, since in addition mid-February the steel products have kept in stock the degree weakly in the last year, at present five big variety stock total quantity is 15,620,000 tons, compares the same time last year high 1,190,000 tons.The steel products supply surface extremely is very obviously abundant, although also the present steel mill overhaul has the increase tendency, but the obvious underproduction phenomenon appearance, the thick steel daily output with difficulty has not appeared the large drop, in addition the demand faced with the traditional off season test, the supply and demand contradictory with difficulty appears the fundamental transformation.
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