It is learnt that since the recent steel market panic with diffuse, partly offset the benefit of a strong manufacturing effects, a new dip. This panic comes from three main areas:
　　 A new trouble is the European debt crisis. Not long ago, Portugal, and Spain bond yields soaring, triggering renewed European debt crisis. European elections even in the near future, austerity policies under pressure, resulting in disintegration of the eurozone panic. First of all is France in the general election, Hollande was elected in favour of subtractive austerity plan would make between France and Germany "financial contract" suffered, followed by Greece councils could not be expected. Because of voter dissatisfaction with the austerity program, the result may be difficult to form the most effective, not in the near future to form a stable Government to implement EU conservation plan. Under its influence, could disrupt rescue package from EU funds. If Greece "bankruptcy", was forced to withdraw from the euro zone, and Spain and Italy spread is bound to trigger a new financial crisis impact on global economy, greatly reduced demand for steel.
　　 Trouble is that the European debt crisis, results of some euro-zone countries debt default, the euro depreciated, even a "waste paper", causing the dollar risk aversion increased demand and the dollar rose, pressed steel and iron ore prices. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published reports that in the near future: situation remains the greatest threat to global economic growth of the eurozone, it is the threat of China's steel market.
　　 Is affected by the haze double panic worldwide demand and currency effects, international market commodity prices generally fall in the near future, with New York Futures Exchange oil prices dropped below $ 100 a barrel mark, global stock markets also fell, China Rebar prices dip again.
　　 Is the second steel production capacity expected to release. As the steel markets in early, crude steel production capacity has also a large number of releases throughout the country. National crude steel output in the 1 quarter of the year to 174.22 million tonnes, an increase of 2.5%. March crude steel output 61.58 million tons, an increase of 3.9%. Improve growth over the last two months. Even lower-level 1 calculating quarterly production, crude steel production for the year is close to 700 million tons. If the levels of output are maintained in 61 million tons in the next 9 months, crude steel production will reach 720 million tons for the year. Then consider to lie about the situation of China's iron and steel enterprises is more serious, actual crude steel output may be much higher. View national crude actual output is not a 683 million tonnes last year, but about 730 million tons. Estimates, even if only 3% increase in crude steel, production will exceed 750 million tons for the year. So many of the crude steel production, steel products, of course, to be cautious.
　　 Three concern real estate market crash. For China's real estate prices in the future, there is a big dispute. Majority view is that, in the country under strict regulation of real estate policy, the future may be a 10% decline in prices in the long run, higher price shocks. Also have a partial view, think first-tier cities during the year would be 30%, even 50% decreased. This prophecy was actually scary. Once this really happen, is bound to raise China's real estate market collapsed, resulting in construction machinery, household appliances, many weak consumption of steel in important sectors such as logistics. Under its influence, rapid expansion of China's steel market will collapse.
　　 Not only that, notwithstanding the fall in prices since the beginning of this year China, but remains at a high level, especially pork, vegetable and other food prices continue to rise, and cost pressures increased in the future. Concerns about prices may rebound, made since March, decision-making authorities dared not impose substantial easing. So-called pre-adjust, tune, steady growth easing policy is expected to fail, steel producers and traders and investors generally disappointing, hit confidence in the market, exacerbating the pessimism spread.
　　 We can see that the haze is above a few panic, makes the steel market in the near future under great pressure, pressure prices downward again. Although some fears are only a small probability event, almost does not happen, but it fears clouded, but it will really impact steel Executive, investor and consumer confidence, as much as possible to delay the procurement of raw materials, even excessive destocking to suppress the reasonable demand. Lange steel information centre survey data shows that April steel circulation industry in the PMI index, total orders of 44.6%, representing a marked decline last month; willingness to purchase PMI50.6%, down 16% last month.
　　 It is to be noted that, in the steel market climate of panic and pessimistic tone at the same time, research on some signs at the end of the show. Mainly global warming trend of manufacturing industry. In April, for instance, United States ISM manufacturing purchasing managers ' index (PMI) 54.8 per cent, increased by March, the highest level since June 2011. China manufacturing index (PMI, statistics) for 53.3%, than up March, rally for five consecutive months, and higher than the level in the same period last year.
　　 As early as April before China's PMI index, some steel consumption-related investment, industrial production, exportation and other major economical index of steel began to go well, per cent higher than. Automobile production and sales growth per cent respectively and 16.9% (steam in statistics), in March, the highest level for the calendar year.
　　 These important economic data show that steel market demand in China is likely to have in the 1 quarter out of the trough. Even if the current panic clouded, due to the strong support of cost factors, and the real economy is moving in the direction of recovery, steel is also very limited room for further price drops. Not to be too pessimistic about this.



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