Late last month, the national development and reform commission for examination and approval in accelerating a number of major projects of good policy stimulation, the national market price of steel reason picks up, market confidence better moments, the steel market downturn is still active unprecedentedly, long time no see of middlemen tumbled trading began; But in the later moved to the national development and reform commission dispatch "new 4 trillion investment" rumors and terminal purchase is still weak under enormous began on Monday, the time the steel market performance "weak" precursors, steel price continue to rebound in double resistance, prospects are grim.
According to the market monitoring shows, by June 4, closing, the prices continue to drop the whole endorsement weak, only line screw to rise slightly, clinch a deal the weak, the potential of the rebound thwarted; 25 mm level 3 thread average price rise 3 yuan, 6.5 contour average fell $20, level 3 thread average rose 10 yuan; 5.5 mm hot-rolled coil, average price fell $7; 1.0 mm of cooling-plate average fell $2; 20 mm plate average fell 12 yuan; 1.0 mm galvanized sheet average fell 15 yuan, 0.47 mm caitu average small traders; 2.5 mm narrow strip average price fall specifications 20 yuan; 4 "the welded pipe average fell $5, 108 * 4.5 mm seamless tube average price drop 8 yuan; # 25 range average fell $9, 25 # channel steel average fell $8, 5 # Angle steel average fell $2; 200 * 200 h-beam average price fall 5 yuan.
Steel price in the chaos after the rally has not yet been footing, encounters the rising resistance, many "pour cold water on" fast douse the steel market has just been rekindled the passion, whether that this rallies are only "a flash in the pan", also need to market confirmed.
This steel price rebound lack of fundamental warms up support
As is known to all, into June, the national endorsement in the off-season and seasonal demand, the north will enter high temperature summer weather, the south meiyu into the flood season, and now there are certain steel demand with the outdoor project construction progress because of weather will later cause further reduce, results in actual use steel demand continues to fall, the market of steel on the ability to reduce inventory, steel price will lose the pull up the basic power.
At the same time, the days are published in May were difficult to find the positive economic data endorsement of information, may PMI index dropped sharply to 50.4%, explain the Chinese manufacturing industry continues to boom of the agent, present the inventory high, prices fell back, the present situation of production enthusiasm is not high, But at the same time in May, is a steel PMI dropped back to 48.8%, reflecting the steel industry sales index, sales price traders sharply, and production index and stock index is still in a high stage, steel industry internal continue to show serious excess capacity of the situation.
Cost is not strong base of support
Steel price in late last month showed a strong rebound after movements, the domestic market billet, iron ore prices after consecutive fall Yin market, the rapid rise of; But in steel mill is still cautious attitude purchase, the impact of rising prices of raw materials and there is no trade relay, market for the improvement of the no fundamental, given the raw material price trend relative products of steel lag, we think, once steel price in the short term rally end market, so the raw material market or a slight improvement will follow turned down.
In addition, the recent overseas mine expressed the international iron ore market prices have close to the top, in the later as the Chinese market steel demand further reduce, global iron ore market prices are expected to fall touch top, at the same time, the largest iron ore producers BHP said the next six months, the company won't change again to implement any of the iron ore project about investment behavior; To illustrate the iron ore market is also a look at late weak attitude. Steel price from the late to raw material market obtained more powerful cost support power; But as the price of raw materials will continue to lower, may drive the steel price appear cost traders, towing trend. But we think the raw materials, the late fall, as the main raw material price steel billet, at present the market price and the cost price is 100 yuan/tons of hangs upside down; The price depends on the fall is billet is down, or will continue to reverse his head to stimulate iron ore prices from falling further.
Excess capacity is still the main price increase of steel difficult position
According to the forecast in May, on the average daily crude steel production still keep in 2 million tons, steel society is still relatively high inventory, this basically is procured trade business low stock market operation means be caused by, in fact steelworks inventory has been close to saturation; By June 1,, the national steel social total inventory is about 15.97 million tons of steel to inventory of last week speed greatly atrophy; Display terminals demand remains the doldrums of the facts.
The author thinks that, although difficult to understand for the cause of the high against the steel mill, but almost consistent to stimulate shipment as the main intend, last weekend, including most of the buildings, shazhousteel steel manufacturers continue to maintain the factory price cut policy pricing technique, and continue to complete the previous plan for the agent of the implementation fell, from steel this a series of actions to see, steel mills continue to put later movements, the price cut will ship, strong in steel factory cut further, although the market price of the range down is weakened, but still in the hangs upside down.
Overall, analysts agree judgment, this steel price of rallies is coming to an end, and of the policy stimulus in the short period of good attitude change up market, after the downturn in demand fundamentals will let the vain confidence dropped again; Steel price will be in very low excess capacity and the demand under enormous, continue to build the concussion; Be quiet this policy brought with good actual release steel demand.
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