Although the macro side at home and abroad by multiple still bad flank, seems to be a "fire caves, the hole is a gun contained" the helplessness of the trend, but subject to domestic policy stimulation of the expected increase good, early June whether futures or the spot market are a modest rise in, of course, here we are not consider its duration, but "on June the grand opening" is worthy of affirmation, today steel, iron ore and non-ferrous metal all appear rare state general goes up, the market with confidence rallied and overall trade atmosphere is good.
However, industry insiders still points out, the macroscopic level pressure is continuously increasing, the market is still need to be vigilant rebound was at a discount.
Macro capital face: not sure many factors, the future possibility
Today a series of macro economic data at home and abroad is introduced. Since the Spanish international crisis has heating, while the United States economic growth in the first quarter than expected, overnight commodities futures market continue vulnerable. Domestic may PMI also appears apparent, showing the economy growth further slowing. The market for June policy further relax expected increase, most expected June may cut rates. At the same time, the state council meeting by the principle of nuclear safety planning, nuclear power project could resume.
Domestic capital market reflect is differ, overall weak. 1 the domestic stock market after the shock high consolidation, HuZhi finished up 0.05%; Domestic commodity futures almost fallen, PTA, rubber, sugar, and grease declines follow, have down below the workbench along, reached a new low; Non-ferrous metal low consolidation.
The steel market: strong performance, common to meet up
Although the market environment overall weak, but the industrial commodities spot market was strong, steel, iron ore and non-ferrous metals generally to rise.
1,, according to market monitoring shows, the domestic main city Ф 25 mm level 3 rebar average price 4174 yuan (tons price, similarly hereinafter), than 31 rose $13; The domestic main city Ф 6.5 mm contour average price is 4094 yuan, more than 31 up 12 yuan; The domestic main city 5.5 mm hot-rolled strip average price for 4178 yuan, 4 yuan rise than 31; The domestic main center city of cooling-plate 1.0 mm the average price is 5052 yuan, and 31 flat; The domestic main city 20 mm plate average price is 4147 yuan, 31, 1 yuan rise.
The steel market continued stability is strong trend, which still with rebar strong corolla material performance. But on that day the market clinch a deal is still poor performance. According to market them think, recent market rebound stabilising, more is steel prices which is driven by policy, and local markets are still cautious. After all, data shows steel downstream demand is not optimistic, market pressure fails to get relief.
Stimulus and pressing game parallel, the market itself stabilising requirements
Although in the country last week investment stimulation of the good news, the domestic construction steel, steel billets,, strip steel, welded pipe, profile and construction related variety price rebounded, but market people thought that, after all, from the project examination and approval to start still has a long time, the market clinch a deal in news after coming on stage stimulation is part of the wait-and-see terminal and the demand of middlemen the purchase, difficult to continue to maintain at a high level, therefore, near the strip steel, steel last weekend varieties such as price appear rushed back high, building steel, steel billets, welded pipe prices have show up lack of power phenomenon. Overall, the short term steel market weakness is hard to break through the pattern.
Overall the macroscopic level at home and abroad is still too empty, but with the manufacturing PMI may apparent, the market the cut loose policies such as the expected increase. And, in the steel market after continuous drop, all calm mind performance, the market itself stabilising requirements. But because the essence to get better demand, plus policy expected to last, crude steel production remains high, the price of steel to will produce a "strong suppression", the market wait-and-see attitude then increase.
Comprehensive: the market demands of inside and outside, careful rebound was at a discount
Analysis holds that in the medium term, investment in infrastructure to start, household appliances, energy conservation policy implementation of subsidies, the country and so on a series of car to the implementation of the policy stimulus measures, steel demand and to release inventory process will get good ease. In addition, the long endorsement fall after the market, at present has to low position by the end of the year, the market does not allow steel price continue to fall, because if continue to fall, the market will produce the contradiction between supply and demand of except outside of the more market contradiction, such as the deterioration of the down market, industry the deterioration of the economy, and so on, then we can imagine, just more than is run road so simple of suicide.
Overall speaking, in the short run, steel price fluctuations in June is the month of may or to shrink, but from the quarter and seasonal factors perspective, 2 quarter for the rest of the steel market or will continue in "defined range bound, wandering the sanqu Huai into 2 back 3" in the end, the basic can put aside rose expected, but for this week, reaction to the potential or in last week was "discount" for this week.
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