Just the past five months is steel, steel trading business leaders difficult to sleep one month. Steel continued to fall, and the middle is "policy a needle", a slight curb illness, but it seems that the "standard" have failed to put to live, difficult may ask. After all, in fact already malignant cancer endorsement buried, last year's "jin jiuyin 10" lost is the best evidence, both at home and abroad and the macro economy, with steel trading business words, industry crisis outbreak not that only then to blame.
 
Steel price how to get to the next, the expert inside course of study thinks, at present the country increase investment can only pull the endorsement long-term demand, it is difficult to have the actual demand in the short term. June will enter the demand of traditional endorsement off-season, and steel social inventory far higher than last year, unless the actual demand in June in May, steel price can be really will rise.
The current market uncertainty is more, if the national adjustment strategy of words, seven in August could get better endorsement, if Europe debt crisis continues to expand, the emergence of a big questions, will be a great shock to the domestic economy, also hard to endorsement to outshine others.
 
Endorsement last week data points:
 
1, profit: simulation earnings annulus comparing the fall, simulation earnings (cost lag 4 weeks) closed up.
 
2, steel price: steel price falls 40 ~ 70 yuan/ton.
 
3, raw material: ore prices 30 yuan/tons.
 
4, inventory: dealer inventory continue to back slightly, to 8% year-on-year increase; Port ore inventory high consolidation.
Serial: "panic fall"-" the pessimistic small optimistic "will now-a rebound gains from stabilised
 
At home and abroad by multiple factors influence stack, may the country since the price of steel appeared round panic crash, some breeds of weekly decline or even over one hundred yuan. Now the price of steel has been close to or slightly lower than many private steel production cost.
According to the market monitoring show that by the end of May 25, the domestic 10 big key city Φ 25 mm level 3 rebar average price for 4149 yuan, more than the same period last month fell to 209 yuan; 10 big key city in 5.5 mm hot-rolled strip average price for 4181 yuan, more than the same period last month dropped 164 yuan.
 
However, with the end is near a few news media disclosure, and to give the darkness of the endorsement of hope and despair on rising.
 
May 23, the standing committee of state council clear requirements "steady growth" in a more important position, to promote the "1025" planning in the railway, energy saving, agriculture and western infrastructure and the important project implementation on schedule, start a batch of concerning the overall situation, DaiDongXing strong major projects. The national development and reform commission on project examination and approval speed also accelerated, only a day on 21 May have as much as more than 100 projects get reply, the relevant aspects have been asked by the end of June this year reported all investment plan. Some experts expect infrastructure investment in the next few months will have significant rebound.
 
Benefited from this, the steel prices fell at the end of the month finally have the reason stabilised rebound, the rise in many areas is obvious, at that time the raw materials, steel producer prices and clinch a deal are bounced. However, the good time seems to have failed to continue to even weekend, at the beginning of this week, steel price still at the narrow down weak stability channel.
 
All the talk about: endorsement jin jiuyin 10 prices this year or reproduction?
 
Bad side: the endorsement this year to have a market rise sharply
According to market feedback, the beijing-tianjin region of steel trading business generally think that endorsement this year by a sharp rise in difficult market, the industry will be in relatively long-term setting, an industry profit form may be low last throughout 2012.
Beijing JinDaYu trading Co., LTD, the analysis of the general manager YanFei represents the most steel trading business point of view.
 
He says: from abroad to see, the American economy though slightly warmer, but recovery signs are not obvious, the European debt crisis continued fermentation, the global economic recession in the risk surge, is difficult to play the effective demand steel pull. And from a domestic perspective, China's rapid economic growth continues over the years, beginning to slow growth this year, cut the country's GDP growth by 1%, which means that China including steel, reduce the demand for commodities, and the months of crude steel production disclosure not only reduce also reached new highs, restricted the prices of steel, steel trading business is difficult to store up goods through up profits.
Good party: endorsement this year in the second half of the year better than the market in the first half
 
However, there are some steel trading business this year in the second half of the market that endorsement is better than the first half of the year.
 
Beijing three river trade limited liability company's general manager for the second half of the market with the bloomberg expect, he said: "the market trends in the second half of last year, the opportunity to in July, after the end of July, the market will be stabilising, August may have repeatedly, if steel capacity can really come down, this year it's a cash will jiuyin 10 of the market."
 
HaoTian iron and steel group Co., LTD, chief executive LiJinLong argues that, from the current HaoTian steel every day of shipments to see, downstream of the steel demand or some. The market continued improvement, may be more because steel trading business is to lack of confidence. He said: "the state this year on the introduction of the policy may be more about the movements of the endorsement of the late."
Industry experts horsepower think, in recent months the local government to the real estate regulation moderate, to stimulate demand of rigid entry is tiny, is gradually work in May, real estate sales are all better, it will speed up to a certain extent in the real estate investment, engineering construction of the steel demand, price trend also positive role.
 
However, horsepower also remind steel trading business, steel price might still late and a wave of decline. His analysis says: "countries increase investment of the actual steel demand will produce for a time to reflect on the government to speed up gradually, the investment of the good news the stimulation wanes, the domestic steel prices still after there may be a wave down." He personally think, "three quarters of the domestic steel market is expected to finally hit bottom, bounce.




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