For the new round of government stimulus and steel trading business and not expect so optimistic. Zhengzhou's a engaged in steel trading business in China steel nets reporters Mr. Wang said: "the recent mild steel price rise is mainly because this time a new round of stimulus policies of the hype. Good policy too can indeed boosted steel market confidence and short pull up also can make shipment is improving, but manufacturers, demand is old pattern, plus busy harvest season and plum, high temperature, the arrival of the weather is expected to see a large release downstream demand hard. That is, good policy may make factory shipment easy, and not the ideal situation dealer shipment to change still."
"Although stimulus policy is to force, but, terminal on demand or more dead than alive, dealers and how optimistic? Stimulation in the role of policy endorsement also need a period of time." Hebei's a zheng said, "in the short term to demand a large release background, if everyone a large store up goods, do it after the market to calm, buyers of goods sold in fixed prices could fall, is expected to more severe."
Zhengzhou's a steel trading business also have the same concerns: "businessmen should understand that, steel market really better need to see demand face, can say ' 'demand not hair force, everything is blind do STH over and over again." don't be a bull market to the top of the mountain' talk with in the present steel market fit, I think at the moment is the good businesses don't talk, otherwise, now up, the more of the late fall the miserable. Perhaps"
June parts of the market, some varieties, will still fall is the main reason of the: first of all, the European economy still can't see any signs of recovery, the eurozone PMI for 40 months initial value dropped to 45%, and unemployment is still high, consumer confidence index continue to decline. The Greek exit the euro zone, cause the concerns of the countries, global commodities prices continue to fall. And the domestic economy in the short term still can't see signs of improvement, the enterprise benefit down, not a positive loan demand, consumer gloom. Second, the domestic steel supply pressure increase. On one hand, sinosteel association member enterprise inventory up to 5 month of 12.1 million tons, a record, and the same period last year, only 8.76 million tons; On the other hand, steel social inventory pressure in late
February. MYSTEEL statistical society stock although continues to decline, but than with the same period last year, up from 1.174 million tons; Again, mid-may crude steel production average of 2.04 million tons, but only 1.98 million tons in the same period last year. In addition, at present partial steel products in the spot market price and the producer prices down there and, according to MRI estimates, steel threads average profit loss situation, losses 51 yuan/ton, hot rolling average earnings only a few yuan/ton, no significant increase in demand, the downward price lead to the trade on the one hand shipment difficult, on the other hand sell thanks to, so the enthusiasm of purchasing down, which, on the one hand, forcing steel producer prices continue to cut, and steel producer prices lower, market confidence and have brought some negative influence; On the other hand, forcing steel cut production, and steel mills and reduce production demand for raw materials of raw material purchase price or down, further bad market. If sustained economic downturn in Europe and a new crisis, to the influence of the steel price down shall be revealed.
June so can rebound, mainly because: from the macro economic policy, it is expected to see demand the release. The recent national leaders on many occasions propaganda, several ministries also constantly release all sorts of economic stimulus policies. From monetary policy, it may cut the deposit reserve rate, and clearly to prudent monetary policy orientation, and keep the reasonable social financing scale, and further optimize the credit structure, pay more attention to meet the needs of the real economy. Financial, the implementation of the 36.3 billion active consumption subsidies, will drive 450 billion energy-efficient appliances, automobiles, consumption, and also puts forward 170 billion for energy conservation and emission reduction in capital, railway construction, the bank credit extension 2 trillion. In the four translated city 250 billion, of which 50 billion support security room construction. Support for all regions in the 2012 national complete new public rental housing 2.3 million set of tasks, the Treasury has been working with the recent housing rural construction came in 2012, the central subsidies public rental housing special fund 66 billion yuan. Look from the supply and demand, supply growth is limited, and demand growth was likely to exceed expectations. Due to the present price down in steel, steel mills inventory high, steel mills breakdown by will increase, so, supply the level will be slow drop. National leaders also in the research of the speech, to start as soon as possible a batch of concerning the overall situation, DaiDongXing strong project, the national development and reform commission on April 328 project examination and approval, May 20 a day 100 project examination and approval, project examination and approval stepped up. We noticed, railway construction project restored 80%, security room project increase start dynamics, and stimulating domestic demand, expand the policies on foreign demand in succession. Countries also stressed out about private investment in the article 36 of the relevant policy will speed up come. As long as the confidence to boost up, middle demand may be activated, and enlarge the actual demand. In addition, the economy continues to improve, may PMI initial value 53.4, are still in the expansion of the situation, and Michigan consumer confidence index rose to 79.3, and in October 2007 record high since, real estate data recovered well. Overall speaking, due to policy stimulus, there will be a part of the release of demand, market confidence will be greatly improved, will guide the steel price goes up, which may be good in the long material trend plate, plate galvanized varieties in relatively stronger.
But also to prevent European any big swings in the economy on the global economy cause more negative effects, and domestic project funds in place less influence the release of demand and so as to restrict the bounce of the price of steel.
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