As of May 11,, the domestic main market of quality level 2 rebar 25 mm average price is in 4289 yuan/ton, a former Friday fell 74 yuan/ton; 6.5 mm contour average price is in 4344 yuan/ton, a former Friday fell 76 yuan/ton. Shanghai regional steel prices fell back, cut the price of a single week 50 yuan/tons, Beijing area in a single week cut the price of 80 yuan/tons.
The central bank announced on May 18, from within, cut deposit financial institutions RMB deposit reserve rate 0.5%, will release a about 400 billion yuan capital. But the analysis that because of the steel market dominant, the contradiction between supply and demand, and raw material prices still have larger fill the late fall pressure, the drop of good endorsement must or limited.
Last week, baosteel shares issued in June plank price policy, mainstream product continue 4, may choose plates trends continue, the second quarter overall situation more cautious. Hebei iron mid-may guided prices despite no adjustment, but may on the clearing price will face a slashing. The country at present steel price and the market price hangs upside down exists generally, steel mills face further price cut late pressure.
Inventory, according to XiBen Shinkansen data from wire, rebar, hot rolling plate roll, and cold rolled steel, plate five varieties to see, last week the national comprehensive inventory amount for 16.723 million tons, reduce 157400 tons, a drop of 0.93%. Only the architectural steel points area to see, east China, north China, northwest, and northeast China is still in the slow decrease a storehouse, and south China market in a single week delta to 16000 tons, this also is the most vulnerable to the local steel price one important reason.
At the same time, April the national average crude steel production estimated for 2.0258 million tons, a record, crude steel monthly daily output continuous 5 y/y picks up, the market has the contradiction between supply and demand.
In addition, the domestic price has to take the lead in the billet back to the bottom, and have reached a new low of power. Tangshan primorac carbon steel billet ex-factory price from March 23, 3820 yuan/ton back all the way to the current 3650 yuan/ton, accumulative total decline of 4.5%. Slump in demand, crude steel supply pressure under the background of increasing, probably will drag the ore price and steel price decline.
One, demand factors. Situation at present, the market clinch a deal to pure just give priority to, clinch a deal the natural quite limited. And in the middle of demand and copy the need for multiple free off-exchange, waiting for the bottom of the signal further clear. From this perspective, demand will release or late more subtle.
Secondly, cost factors. Following last week's price brought down billet this week after the price also accelerated fall in ore, and accompanied by, and steel prices for a fall. And a leading steel prices east China next week, the promulgation of the market price or will determine short-term bottom, when business operation or will be more inclined to smooth delivery.
Thirdly, capital factor. As bill financing BaoFaShi growth, bill discount interest is all the way down, the Shanghai big silver ticket discount rate has dropped to 4.58 per thousand level, but the market is still lack of investment intentions. But it is worth noting that, in the last dip after cycle, there are certain steel rebound to repair, or will help spot short-term stabilising.
A combination of the analysis, through persistent after hitting, partial variety price has been close to previous low, and policy face also appear some positive signals, thus businessman power or will be weakened winners. Based on this, the market for next week to partial neutral evaluation-blue warning.
Other News:
President Obama Denounces Republican 'Wild Debts': I'm Not an Over-Spender
China steel prices accelerated downside and policy declines in the good compreh
Endorsement: ＂strong with weak the stronger the weak＂
Romney opens new front vs Obama: schools are failing
Egyptians vote on second day of presidential eletions
Supply and demand imbalances will still weak pipe market
Security room engineering smooth steel trading business mind better
Breakdown or Breakthrough?
