Steel price was was in fall channel, plus the agencies see empty, media rendering, the more endorsement and weak. So, there is a word for "the strong, the better the weak weaker", current status of endorsement, on the one hand, the terminal of the demand, on the other hand, this is the attitude of the market. Because demand have always been like terminal "can't afford to help the dou", and not only recently become worse.
The steel industry information 】
Futures aspects: from market realities, still more hesitant buyers to undertake, in addition to the individual enterprise according to production for the small supply supplement the integral atmosphere partial empty, with price falls quantity to add, on offer is to gradually signs active, the next step can reason in the futures price even stabilising the bounce of the lead out of the flagging worth attention; Spot, partial businessman continue to cut offer, and what the north especially. Entrance mine a recent decline can change, depends on the blast furnace and steel production, maintenance and empty factors for library fierce resonance.
The spot market: the majority of building materials market price is weak spot to maintain stability. From overall see, the country 28 cities HRB400 average price for 4379 yuan each rebar tons (real heavy), compared with the session 2 yuan per ton down; 28 main city 8 mm contour average price is 4183 yuan per ton, compared with the session down 3 yuan per ton.
Raw material aspects: in the domestic ore market, hebei area iron essence pink prices keep falling, the total price drop $40 tons. In the entrance mine continued to fall, part of the steel mills began to consider increasing the use of imported ore ratio, domestic market is very light ore clinch a deal. Steel mills inventory common maintain low, mostly for 10 days to only the amount of 15 days. In the entrance mine market, the price down significantly, 63.5% grade India powder grinding offer in around us $142 / mt, down 5 dollars a week. Recent inquiry is less, the latest price bidding of mine down significantly, Newman powder grinding of the tender price has a week ago from the $145 per ton tumbled to 139 dollars.
Capability: according to the latest statistics, April domestic crude steel and steel respectively for 2.019 million tons of average daily production and 2.702 million tons, both a record. Another according to the latest statistics steel association, early may the national average daily production crude steel is as high as 2.0453 million tons, renewed historical records. Contrast weak market demand, and constantly on the steel output of new high, exacerbating the endorsement of the domestic supply pressure. If later can't effectively cut steel mill, steel price reason to really is extremely difficult.
Requirements: face big environment and off-season double restriction. Industrial and construction is a steel two big downstream industry, both performed were not ideal, on the one hand, the macro economic environment at home and abroad by the restriction, on the other hand, face off-season test. From the manufacturing PMI and car production and marketing historical data to see, general manufacturing industry in 3-April to achieve high in the first half after weaker again, until July. Automobiles in April and November sales declined obviously is excavator beneficial evidence. The construction industry is facing high temperature, such as the test of meiyu adverse factors, difficult to have a good performance.
Supply: steel production in May in the since continue to rise, early may national crude steel daily output reached 2.045 million tons of record high. At the same time, steel export orders dropped significantly, plus 2 month since the middle of steel to inventory level weak in the previous year, at present five varieties inventory amount is 16.15 million tons, compared to the same period last year high nearly 1.2 million tons. At present, in addition to the slab rolling mill in north China starts fell outside, still the highest regardeth starts steelmaking iron, steel no willingness to cut. From the current posture, is expected to cut into the June in steel pressure will increase, steel production will fall.
Steel mills aspects: with the steel mills months of high capacity release, the current domestic steel supply pressure is increasing. In iron ore, steel billets, prices are falling and accelerate steel production often a record to see, the author thinks that this is the steel mills in raw material inventory high acceleration consumption as a result of the results, and not the actual demand of reactions, or raw material prices may not long can't afford to fall. But after months of capacity of release of the consumption, steelworks is finished with raw materials, the late once mine, raw materials such as low billet into the factory, and interrupt steel demand downturn continues to words, steel price in the incomes of low cost will also reached a new low.
The agency view 】
Cuhk futures: rebar main contract 22, 1210 to 4099 yuan/ton price small high open, and then go to the days of high high 4112 yuan/ton, then prices began to pressure lower, and all day long downward trend continues, though plate to rebound, but failed to break through days are line, 2 p.m. in late 4060 low price to days a concussion rebound, eventually closing price 4074 yuan/ton, a previous day (21) settlement price falls 12 yuan/ton; Volume of 809816 hand, position of 879042 hand, ing 41514 hands.
Steel industry analysts think, steel price in the macro good news as well as forward market rebound technology drive, the sensitive varieties of mild rebound. However, from the supply side, demand side, cost surface and macro face to see, all does not have the reversal of the overall market foundation. Only when fine-tuning cumulative effects appear, measures such as steel production by good factor appears, really improve steel price. From the time on the node, appeared in two, three quarters of the early in the third quarter alternate or larger probability.
China steel nets view: whether the future will improve endorsement, reason is late, now we have to see big steel attitude. If steel mill can according to the market situation, adjust reduce steel production, reduce steel social inventory pressure, endorsement there is a little hope; If steel big brother continued at the current production enthusiasm, the future will be more and more miserable endorsement.
【 23, an important steel industry view 】
Endorsement "drop" became the main melody
In the European debt crisis continue to fermentation, the domestic economy slowing and real estate and comprehensive downstream demand such as railway construction under the influence of the downturn, from mid April began, steel prices continue to slide. May 16 futures contract price 1210 main rebar and a year low, until recent days have reason to.
In late summer or early autumn endorsement or better
Domestic steel market mid-april steps
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