Several Class 8 truck manufacturers are quietly predicting U.S. sales may not plummet as far as they might in 2009, but only because new emissions regulations are set to go into effect in 2010 -- which operators fear may adversely impact fuel mileage and reliability.

Heavy trucks -- Class 4 though Class 8 -- and the more profitable large bearings they represent -- are an important market segment for many bearing manufacturers.

The 2009 pre-buys should help sales reach into the range of 130,000 to 135,000 units, down 30% from 2008 and with a large portion of those essentially cannibalizing sales from 2010 and 2011.

The current order rate for Class 8 trucks in North America would put 2009 sales well below 100,000 units, but many believe orders will gradually creep up as the year goes on.

A similar situation occurred in 2006, as operators purchased new trucks ahead of diesel engine emissions regulations kicking in for 2007 which reduced fuel mileage and raised maintenance questions.

Industry analysts expect pre-buys due to similar concerns about 2010 emission regulations will be responsible for up to 30% of 2009's Class 8 sales.

Moving into 2009, December 2008's Class 8 orders fell to 8,700 units, and deliveries fell to 12,000 units, the lowest level since 2007 pre-buys started playing out in September 2006.

The 8,700 unit order rate is the lowest in two years, indicating 2010 pre-buys are not yet committing and the economy continues to decline.

For all of 2008, U.S. Class 8 truck sales reached only 133,500 units, down 12% from 2007 and the lowest since 1992.

There is a natural floor to commercial heavy truck sales, however, because trucks wear out and have to be replaced as they become too expensive to repair. Generally, the sales floor for U.S. Class 8 trucks is believed to be in the range of 110,000 to 115,000 units. This leaves some room for the current fleet to continue aging as it has been for several years.

U.S. sales of all heavy trucks -- Class 4 through Class 8 -- fell 19% in 2008, to 323,400. 1993 is the next lowest sales number, at 303,000. 2006 was the peak year for Class 4 through 8 trucks, selling 581,000 ahead of the 2007 environmental regulations which impacted diesel engine emissions, power, and complexity.

European sales for all medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks are expected to fall nearly 50% in 2009, to approximately 300,000 units combined.

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