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Consumer spending, jobs data point to lukewarm growth

Consumer spending rebounded in May, and new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the economy is still moderate growth path.
While other data on Thursday show contracts to buy second-hand housing nearly 6-1/2 years in May high, the data indicate that economic activity together may remain lukewarm, and prevent the Fed will soon cut its monetary stimulus.
"It is still better growth picture, but there are some suggestions that we will get the breakthrough growth, will bring a more rigorous environment in the near future, from the kind of decision-makers," said that in the OppenheimerFunds Management economist Brian Levitt in New York.
The Fed said last week that downside risks have receded, the monthly purchase of bonds this year, the pace began to pull back.
Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.3 percent last month, reversing the 0.3% decline in April, the Commerce Department said.
Adjusted for inflation, spending rose 0.2%. However, the actual expenditures for April were down in the first six months of contraction, suggesting that second-quarter economic growth may be a little weaker than economists had expected.
Barclays cut its 0.4 percent GDP growth forecast to 1.4% pace. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast from 10:00 to 1.7%, while Morgan Stanley trimmed its estimate from 1.6% to 1.5%.
In the first three months of this year, the economic downturn in the rate of expansion of 1.8%.
In a bright sign, Winnebago Industries company reports, as of June 1 motor home sales for the quarter increased by 55 percent and trailer sales growth of 10%, almost doubled its profits.
In addition, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell 9,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 346,000. A four weeks moving average irons out Zhou Zhoubo fell 2,750 to 345,750 move.
Reports suggest the pace of job growth, with an average 189,000 jobs a month so far this year changed little.
"It seems that the underlying pace of layoffs remained stable in June, the other half of the employment equation, renting, there are likely to remain stable," says Berger, Guy in Stamford, Conn., Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) economist.
Improve data TONE
Wall Street stocks rose in the data, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose for a third day on track. Dollar and U.S. Treasury prices rose roughly pushed.
Sell-off in U.S. equities and government bonds last week, the Fed's opinion, after some officials in the central bank seeks to promote the upcoming stops its bond-buying program on the market fears. The Fed has purchased $ 8.5 billion of dollar bonds every month in an effort to keep borrowing costs down, and to promote stronger growth.
"If the labor market conditions and economic growth were to be lower than the ratio (Fed) prospect - and this is what has happened in recent years - I would have thought that the purchase of assets will continue to be at higher speeds for longer time, "New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley (William Dudley) said on Thursday.
Recent data, including regional factory activity reports, corporate spending plans and consumer confidence, pointing out a series of economic, early in the second quarter to regain their footing after stumbling.
The stability is an important part because the strengthening of the housing recovery.
National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales index, in May signed a contract basis, increased by 6.7% to 112.3 points - December 2006, the highest level since.
Although some of the pending sales jerk buyers locked in a hurry before the transaction, higher mortgage rates, also marks the underlying strength.
Housing price increases have helped boost consumer spending in the face of higher taxes and income growth tepid.
However, revenue, an increase of 0.5 percent last month, the biggest gain since February, up 0.1% in April after fine-tuning, the Commerce Department report showed. Gain boost to 5-month high of 3.2 percent savings rate.
"In the third quarter, a little bit of progress," said Bruce McCain in Cleveland, Ohio Key Private Bank's chief investment strategist.
The report also shows that in the economy, inflation picked up a little point to some of the demand.
PCE price index edged up 0.1 percent, after falling for two consecutive months, in May, the core reading, excluding food and energy costs also rose by 0.1%, unchanged from the previous April.
In the past 12 months, the inflation rate increased by 1%, well below the Fed's 2% target, but the four-month period, from 0.7% through.
Core prices rose 1.1 percent from a year ago, also in April. Although to some of the stable for a long period of deflation, it matches the record low reached only in 1960 in the series since the beginning of times.
 



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