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Rising Home Prices And Falling Unemployment: Don't Trust the Numbers

The national unemployment rate fell to 7.6% this morning. This is good news, right?
Across the country housing prices clever. This is good news, right?
Wrong ... in these two areas.
Unemployment is only because there are fewer workers in the labor force.
 
The United States has increased paltry 88,000 in March, the stock criticized
 
Housing prices quickly grown into the collapse of the housing: Case Shiller
The Agustino the Fontevecchia
Forbes staff
The only higher prices of single-family homes, institutional investors to buy bad assets, the flash cash to fly as fast as time and bulk.
The unemployment rate fell is easy to see through. Appeal to an estimated 200,000 new jobs in March, increased by only 88,000 jobs, reduce the ranks of the unemployed, because the number of people in the total labor force decreased.
Workers are still here, only they have given up looking for work, because they do not consider the unemployment rate has dropped, if they do not find a job. Is now 63.3% of the labor force participation rate in the United States. This is the lowest since 1979. Unemployment is not shrinking. Who have not been able to find a job for months or even years, the number of people just give up looking for work do not shrink, it grows.
 What is not easy to see through the false number of unemployed, but equally dangerous, is really driving the high housing prices across the country.
 If you think that the rapid rise in housing prices is a good trend, you may want to think twice.
Homes, not in here, one person can not, but the bulk of the family, is a tradable asset classes. Single-family residential mortgage-backed securities wrapped in a blanket pool of 20 trillion U.S. dollars of credit default swaps (derivatives of mass destruction) market is quite shy, but dwarfs all other negotiable instruments.
Or should I say, again, just when you think it is safe distressed single-family housing market bottom fish, perhaps for a family for you and your family, the attendant of the Wall Street gang again.
Institutional buyers beaten traditional owner-occupied home buyers to enter the market. With the huge hoarding cash at their disposal, they are buying non-performing assets, mostly in foreclosure or promote the sale of short-term lender, in time and in bulk where they can.
Listed (OTC) alternative investment and capital management company (formerly private equity shops), Blackstone Group (BX) leading the charge. Blackstone Group has spent more than 3.5 billion U.S. dollars, has accumulated more than 16,000 single-family residential portfolio.
Stephen Schwarzman, Chairman, CEO and co-founder of Blackstone Group, said the company one week to spend about $ 100 million purchase.
Silver Bay Real Estate Trust Co., Ltd. (SBY) is a new spin-off of the Real Estate Investment Trust, the parent company of the Real Estate Investment Trust to shed two ports Investment Co., Ltd. (b), and 3400, to increase its stock purchase, lease properties.
Private capital into the market. Like high-heeled fund Colony Capital, GI Partners and several large hedge funds support.
Buy houses investors inventory estimates range from 50,000 to hundreds of thousands of properties.
The game hunters supporting fixed properties and leases.
Large-scale institutional interests to help enterprises prices, but it might be the dangerous marketing too high too fast.
Prices have been rising for 12 consecutive months 47 and 50 states. Data providers according to CoreLogic, U.S. housing prices rose in February the largest amount of 7-year-old. The biggest jump last year in Nevada, where prices rose 19.3% in Arizona, where prices rose 18.6%, and 15.3% of the price in the pop seen in California.
So, what is the problem?
On the surface, just like the title unemployment figures decline in housing prices look good. However, a closer look, palpitations bound to ordinary Americans.
Institutional investors crowding out traditional buyers of owner-occupied, and forcing them to pay more for families than they will be paid in cash, if not everywhere. If this trend continues, it will be sold like any theoretical cornered (certain market, but believe that the "local"), the money will try to create a floor and push up prices as high as possible.
Came out of the mortgage lender will see rapid appreciation of the situation and ask yourself that they leave behind the traditional buyers are increasingly close to another car and mortgage potential peak point?
Cash put to work on the other side, the agency is not out in the cold. Bulk buyers from the rental cash flow securitization of rental housing as collateral, what traders ... to create your own mobile no.
We've been here before you?
The last time I played this game, home ownership counted on "skin in the game, and should extend their losses. That did not happen. We should now believe that renting is better cash flow jockey?
I'm not saying how this is going deja vu again, but it certainly is a concern.
 



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