This is scared to employers, investors and the slowing American economy situation:
Congress and the White House budget agreement failed to qualify for the New Year's day. Their stalemate trigger increase tax and spending cuts. These measures contraction consumption, employment growth inhibition, overthrow the stock price, promote economic was lifted "fiscal cliff", and a recession.
The actual situation may be a lot less dark.
Even if the New Year in the past, do not have to deal with, some enterprises or consumers may panic agreement seems to be as long as may soon. Tax increases and spending cuts the traceability of this year after January 1, abolished.
The influence of the tax increases gradually feel just. Most people will in each pay slightly less money.
"Cliff will mean a recession next year simple conclusion is wrong," Nomura Securities (Nomura Securities) economists lewis Alexander said. "This will depend on how long the policy in place."
It can always in the opposite words, President Obama and republican leaders negotiation between will collapse. Permanent to increase taxes and the prospect of spending cuts may lead to a lot of consumer and enterprise delay spending, hire or expansion.
But most economists expect trading, if not then soon after New Year. The enterprise and the consumer is likely to remain calm negotiation seems to be as long as will lead to a deal.
"The atmosphere than talks is overflow" next year is more important, in the Capital economy (Capital Economics) economist Paul wirth says ASHLEY.
This is why many people are optimistic that a brief drop cliff won't destroy economic recovery
- although can make economic and fiscal cliff, an estimated 2013 years of $67.1 billion dollars, tax hit in the first for most people will be slight. Social security and income tax expires, will spread to the whole 2013 years. Tax payers of between $40000 and $65000 income, pay an average of about $1500, next year atrophy, but an average of just $130, in January, according to the independent tax policy center.
- about one-third of all tax increases will not touch the most americans. Some people can make business. Other countries, such as higher investment income and manor, and medium income tax credit due taxes, not before maturity, the people of the United States in 2014 presented its 2013 tax.
- if a deal seems imminent, some experts say, the irs may delay increase tax withholding to play "without a transaction, the top income tax rate for the single about between $36000 and $88000 should pay taxes income will rise 25% to 28%. A delay of withholding tax increase will alleviate initial tax hit.
- about $8.5 billion spending cuts in defence and domestic project will require weeks or longer time to take effect. This means that government agencies not layoffs.
However, if the budget negotiations procrastinated, many enterprises may be postponed investment or hire. This is why most economists said, it will be very important, about 2013 years of the first two months to reach an agreement.
, uncertainty has led to some enterprise delay spending. Consider apices tools and manufacturing, a 10 people shop, indiana evansville, make the parts of the automobile glass, telecommunications equipment and plastic, etc.
Sales rebound. The company President terry bab says he wants to spend $150000 on the computer control milling machine. A couple of years ago, vertex win too little bab even worry about tax.
But he is not willing to, until he sure what duty to absorb the new cost. The company invest in new equipment tax cuts expire. Enterprise cannot demand rest, unless there is a new equipment is the before the end of the year. Mechanical may need weeks to reach, this means that it is too late bab claim credit this year.
If that is called the alternative minimum tax is not fixed, more people will be affected.
In the economic pain AMT purpose is to prevent the rich man loophole and deduction, in order to avoid any income tax. The AMT inflation, so it increasingly threatened the medium income tax payers. The United States congress has to take action, every year for more than ten years to prevent AMT hit more people.
If it is not fixed, about tax payers, including married couples income for 45000 yuan low - from $2011 in 74450 - may be faced with AMT. Before this, only tax payers pay. Tax payers AMT must be calculated according to the conventional systems and AMT tax and large amount of payment.
The country tax bureau said, it is assumed that congress and the White House will solve AMT a agreement, to avoid the cliff. If they do not, IRS will need weeks for reprogramming a computer and other adjustment. In the meantime, nearly tax payers not to tax declaration, early next year, because they were not sure whether they owe AMT. A refund will be delayed.
A direct spending cuts will be the end of the year the extension of unemployment benefit. Most of the provisions of the state and the benefits of a week. But since 2008, the federal government of the United States to provide emergency welfare programs. This increased an average of 32 weeks, depends on the country, common and weeks of welfare for the long-term unemployed.
If the benefits of extended end January 1 held as scheduled, about $3 billion, next year will be saved. But, if not the money, about 20000 people will lose has been working for more than 6 months of 320 yuan a week on the average of the interest.
Economists point out that unemployment benefit tend to spend the money fast, give a person a kind of elevator economic. Due extended dominance will be reduced about 0.2%, the congressional budget office estimates that next year's economic growth.




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