Washington (Reuters) - President elect barack Obama and republican challenger Romney (Mitt Romney) between look like will be a knuckle bite - unless you go to America's most respected one of the poll.
Since most surveys show that Obama and Mr Romney lock in a virtual hot dead, Gallup think the republicans will win a comfortable six percent, if the election held today.
Gallup survey results and other public opinion poll, the gap between the problem is this election season many parties passion of water to boil the fierce last few weeks ago, November 6, presidential election voting method make a fuss about the latest.
Accurately predict all, but can be traced back to 1936 presidential election and record, Gallup business the most famous one of the brand, its from group status have other polls experts head.
"They just to make a good condition of that a moment, said:" Simon · jackman, Stanford university political-science professor and author of a book to vote. "Whether they are doing is very strange or have other 18 poll institutions collusion, or something."
Gallup (Gallup) Ed., frank Newport said, he didn't know why his grades didn't line up with others. He seems to have no uneasy gap.
"We try to keep our eyes on the boat, and do the best job possible," he said. "We want to more additional adjustment and our methodology, to ensure that we in it."
When barack Obama opened up broad poll lead in last month, the researchers interviewed many republicans accused Democrats. These complaints evaporation, Mr Romney rapid development, his powerful on October 3, the debate performance.
Now, the Obama campaign Gallup's method is effective after questioning, earlier this week according to a poll released, Mr Romney leadership may vote in the voters who will decide the election battleground points out, in very rare.
Obama pollster Joel the nissen says, Gallup survey "extreme abnormal value", and that the formula to determine the voters to vote may create a prejudice Obama supporters. "Far and other public opinion polls institutions Gallup data again," he wrote in a memorandum on Monday.
Republican strategist Karl rove, points out that there is no last Thursday who once respondents more than 50%, at this point, in the Gallup poll in presidential candidate defeat in the election. As it happens, a Gallup romney to 51% of that day.
Gallup (Gallup) and other major survey the contrast between the is obvious.
By last Friday afternoon, Gallup daily tracking survey may vote of voters Mr Romney lead over Obama 6%, from 51% to 45%.
Reuters/Ipsos (Ipsos) tracking survey, the sample from the Internet, Obama a lead three point last Friday, and most of the time this week. Polling daily public policy research, Obama a lead a bit, the lender to his early three points, rasmussen shows that both candidates bound.
"The enterprise do not like to be abnormal value - it led to a lot of self-doubt, said:" Harvard University political science professor Stephen Ansolabehere. "This is OK, if you are wrong, if everyone else is how, this is not sure is wrong, if you are alone."
As expected to vote, in a perfect world, also from other company performance in mutual conflict. The Wall Street journal and NBC news/virgin survey released last Friday, Obama a lead 8 point greatly swing state, Iowa, but, a PPP poll, Mr Romney in front of the same day there is a point.
Warm fluctuation
Possible reasons have a lot of change. Gallup's tracking survey depends on a 7 day rolling mean value, so it may still be registered, his strong debate on October 3,, Mr Romney won a surge.
Some experts suggest, may have been in Gallup telephone survey of way, make it easier to translate into rise, vote for candidates, before election day in the final months of the fluctuation of the broader surge in enthusiasm.
Have the industry more and more realized, phone the survey based on become less and less reliable. Along with the usage of the cellular phone increase, the traditional family telephone various swim-strokes would miss large section of the population, especially young people.
But, the mobile phone is equipped with a set of problems. Users often USES from another country the area code and the person who answered the phone, they don't know, they may be unlikely.
However, this may not be explain inconsistent Gallup poll, now rely on the investigation of the home phone and mobile phone equilibrium.
Either way, the vote company weight answer response to reflect the United States population as a whole vote of the general composition. For example, if the pollster cannot get enough older Hispanic women, those who participate in reaction will be calculated more than once. But the weight of the sample is too serious a result of the distortion of the.
The next step is to determine how many response will participate in the election.
Gallup said it "may vote of voters", asked whether they are in the last vote, if they know their vote in place, and other similar problems. This formula has been adjusted, this year considering the early voting rates increase.
Gallup's Newport, points out that the company may voters formula more accurately predict the outcome of the election than its broader all registered voters can be traced back to the 1990 s, in fact, may elect to predict often slightly democratic presidential candidate to vote.
This process is in some ways as a science and art, in different formula, the result arrived in, every polling station companies depend on. For details of the process is proper, it is not possible, and said something in difference, some polls agency said.
"I think they are in Gallup professionals, they are trying to do things well, said:" mark · cloth Lou door sa er, Hector FenDu post "director voting.




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