Factors affected by the global economic slowdown, the decline in demand for steel, steel overcapacity, cost Down, steel prices have fallen to the lowest point in the past two years. Market between low inventory and low demand the formation of a new weak balance performance suffered in 2009 plunged power for the price change is not obvious whether the steel prices, or in the "Golden September" coming out of the predicament before ? comparison the author of the following analysis:
International aspects: first, the European debt crisis continued to upgrade, external factors such as the global economic recovery is weak, making the export and FDI decline can be expected, the form of China's foreign trade in the second half of the year will be more severe, the future of the country or the introduction of some of the policies to ease the downward pressure. Second, the rate of inflation in the euro area is above the central bank's target level, but no obvious signs of the rapid rise the ECB inflation and not take the possibility of economic policy. Third, the weak economic data: July U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly to 49.8% from 49.7% in the previous month for 2 consecutive months of decline; Eurozone manufacturing PMI final value was adjusted to 44% for the 37 months since a new low 12 consecutive months in contraction interval.
Domestic aspects: First, the central bank's reverse repurchase overweight, the sated funds rising interest rates. 16, the People's Bank a tender interest rates manner to carry out the 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase operations, the market interpreted as the central bank still hopes to balance the use of reverse repurchase capital side. Second, the railway project has become a local version of the four trillion "main event, but due to the railway projects remains slow disbursement of funds, the construction side expressed reluctance Loaning. Third, from 50.2% in June, July, China's official manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 50.1%, marking the lowest level since last November, indicating that the slowdown in domestic economic growth has not been completely reversed, downward pressure will remain for some time. Fourth, a new production. Focus on large and medium-sized enterprises in early August 2012, average daily production of crude steel, 1.6205 million tons, late growth of 0.88%; estimated early August, the average daily production of crude steel of 1.9699 million tons, the late growth of 1.05%. Crude steel output is still rising, Description the most Blast Furnace, the converter is still normal operation, there has been no apparent signs of cuts.
Market areas: New resources currently on the market are relatively few businesses little pressure on the stock market price declines slowed down, even a slight rebound in the stock market, but the overall turnover in general. Which, last week, the price of building materials in the prices of individual cities, led by some cities homeopathic rise, but the turnover and failed to support prices to rise further, in some cities, the phenomenon of a pullback; hot rolled coil prices fell, the market demand still weak, stable business mentality, the decline in the 40-100 yuan / ton; continued to weaken in the plate area showed mixed majority of market prices continue to fall, decline darker individual cities (such as Tianjin) price rebounded slightly; cold rolled coil prices continue to decline in the range of 20-150 yuan / ton, the largest decline Shijiazhuang; profiles prices were slightly down.
Cost: on the one hand, the price of raw materials has not yet bottomed out on CHOW steel carbon steel billet successful tax low price to 3140 yuan / ton, reaching a new low since 2009, billet prices continued to decline, or the price of iron ore will make further Order of the pressure, and the market outlook is still down space, efforts to support steel prices weakened. On the other hand, the price of a new one policy Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Anshan Iron and Steel are down disk launch makes the spot market confidence by impact, and also bring some downstream impact on the spot market. Another aspect of futures, rebound margin rebar main 1301 contract before taking last week once again return to the disadvantaged, today a new annual low, continuing the short pattern, to create a pessimistic mood.
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