Development of any industry, and are impossible to separate behind closed doors, and other related industries always common progress; purpose of the steel industry, more than a decade as the speed of China's urbanization as well as the rapid development of the economy, but also ushered in a rapid period of development; said, as the basis of China's industrial economy, sustainable development of the iron and steel industry, and the industry of real estate, machinery, household appliances, automobile industry, shipbuilding, infrastructure indivisible, and therefore, we do steel prices Trend judgment when these changes in the industry need to focus on, otherwise everything is empty.
Steel industry mainly downstream industrial steel raw materials; fast development of downstream industries reached, it means that the demand for steel, so as to drive the high-speed development of the steel industry, and vice versa deceleration, which is decided by the law of the cyclical nature of the market economy not considered will of man; Here we analyze the status of the first half of this year, the major industrial future steel prices.
First, let's look at the demand for steel is the largest real estate industry, it is estimated that the annual steel consumption in the real estate industry total of roughly 40 percent, nearly half; That is, the steel price is good or bad, to a large extent directly determined by the rise and fall of the real estate industry; I understand the situation, 1 to 7 month of the national real estate development and investment 3.6774 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.4%, down 1.2 percentage points higher than 1 to 6 months. Commercial residential investment 2.5226 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7%, the growth rate down 1.3 percentage points; single term from July, real estate development and investment of 616.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 9.6%, a decline of 27%.
Easy to see the influence of the National Real Estate-control policies, China's real estate investment growth is showing a more substantial decline in domestic commercial housing inventory is still high, even though the housing market since the second half of the year has improved in the contract price and the number of turnover, but The central traffic regulation policy in order to control prices is On the whole, the real estate development and investment in the coming period is still more to maintain ground growth difficult to significantly release, so the demand for construction steel and other steel, which is the recent pileare construction steel prices several times rebound declare died mainly due to short term, the real estate industry's demand for steel could not be released is the main cause.
Secondly, look at the changes in the infrastructure investment; recent years, our highways, railways, water conservancy and other infrastructure areas to invest gradually reduce, despite the authorities in the previous statement said the construction of the highway network as well as the peak period of ten years, the construction of the railway network also will continue to maintain a moderate advance; very obvious, but, since 2012, reduced government investment in these industries has become a fact; most of the construction in progress, on behalf of the construction of infrastructure projects are difficult to place because of financing and the slow progress. By railway, for example, from January to June 2012, China's railway fixed assets investment of 177.751 billion yuan, 100.365 billion yuan less than the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 36.1%; gap release by national infrastructure investment-led demand for steel The latter obviously can not have too high expectations.
The third block is the manufacturing sector, including the automotive, appliance, shipbuilding and other equipment manufacturing industry, whether it is terminal consumption growth or the growth rate of industrial investment, have also With the decline in economic growth dropped significantly; first half of mechanical overall industrial boom remained relatively malaise, which has shown signs of improvement in railway locomotives and civilian production of steel ships, machine tools, industrial boilers, power generation equipment and other sub-sectors is not optimistic; industry production scale continuous downward trend; while The automotive industry is also affected by the weak global economy affect the result in a decline in demand, the domestic auto industry is facing aspects of investment, production and sales, profit margins permissions decline in the status quo; since 2012, the national household appliances production compared to the previous year marked decline trend from January to June, 2012, 41,454,100 units of production of domestic refrigerators, down 7.42%, narrowed compared to the same month a year earlier, an increase of 26.14 percent; the domestic shipbuilding verge of bankruptcy, shipping enterprises shrunk dramatically and new orders to half above; Some analysts believe that the second half of this year, some large domestic shipping enterprises will continue to face the risk of bankruptcy.
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