Macro-economic weakness, the markets expect policy overweight
Domestic PPI in July fell 2.9%, the CPI rose 1.8 percent, the inflation situation has improved, but still weak macroeconomic situation.
Statistics show that in January-July, China's import and export value of $ 2.16837 trillion, an increase of 7.1 percent over the same period last year. In the month of July, China's import and export value of $ 328.73 billion, an increase of 2.7%, import and export situation can hardly be optimistic. At the same time, the fixed asset investment growth has not significantly improved. 1-7 months, investment in fixed assets amounted to 18.4312 trillion yuan (excluding farmers), year-on-year nominal growth of 20.4 percent growth rate the same as in 1-6 months. July, above-scale industrial added value up a real increase of 9.2 percent, 0.3 percentage points lower than in June, the manufacturing sector is still low-level run. Current market expectations of monetary and fiscal policies to give greater support to macroeconomic.
Significant improvement in the actual demand is weak, short-term difficult
"Rail-based projects, the government investment growth is slowing down the main line of" expanding domestic demand, sustaining economic growth, structural adjustment "of the policy. Current policies tilt policy in the construction and ongoing projects, infrastructure investment is expected to a certain degree of recovery, but the high debt of the railway and highway compression room for growth of investment in infrastructure. From the steel demands of the real estate market and the construction of infrastructure, the actual demand for steel is relatively weak demand growth rate dropped significantly. Consider August is still the traditional consumption off-season, the light of the status quo of the market is difficult to be improved.
Steel cut slightly, the intensity of lower than expected
Market share is difficult to guarantee, stop start high cost and other factors make a limited production of steel, cut-off measures are lagging behind. Although some of the steel mills to take a cut measures the intensity is lower than market expectations. Bureau of Statistics data show that in July the average daily crude steel production of 1.99 million tons, down 1.7 million tons more than in June. The CISA day data show that, in late July, the average daily crude steel production of 1.95 million tons, down 2.2 percent, compared with mid-The above data show that although the efforts to cut steel mills increased, but did not reach the market expectations.
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