U.S. payrolls report to confuse QE3 expected
 
Although non-farm payrolls rose more than expected in July, 16.3 million increase is still not enough to change the Fed's current economic growth is too slow, that they can not substantially promote the employment of judgment. Although the United States in employment on the rise, but the unemployment rate has not declined since the beginning of the year, the current unemployment rate is still much higher than under the conditions of "full employment" unemployment rate, so the Fed has only completed half of the mission entrusted by the Congress. Therefore, the Fed taking action to help the economy the door is still open.
 
The Fed's statement, the word is very important, "the Commission will closely monitor future economic and financial development of the information, if it is necessary to provide additional easing, to promote the economy staged a strong recovery in the context of price stability and to maintain labor improvement of the market. "The above remarks are generally regarded as the Fed's easy tone strengthen representative of.
We need to pay attention to is the next Fed meeting is held after the release of the payrolls report, in August, just the opposite. This is likely to be a very important factor. In fact, in September has been the market as a very critical month, even if the Fed will not be launched in September QE3 will modify the wording of the duration of the maintenance of low interest rates. On the other hand, in view of the U.S. election year, the Fed launched the the QE3 timing point should not be away from the presidential election too close to, or else give the market a false impression, that is, when the Fed to adjust monetary policy, not the economic situation benchmark, but succumbed to political pressure. Therefore, if the Fed also plans to launch QE3 or other stimulus, choose either September or they will sit and wait for the U.S. presidential election dust settles, be postponed until after 2013 before making any moves.
 
Continued decline in the dollar index had hit a new high, short-term run in a downward path, the lower edge of the support in the 81.50 first-line. The daily chart the dollar index has fallen below the moving average system of relying on the midline of the dollar index rally still continues, but below the Dow low of 81.15. The short-term dollar index to maintain the consolidation trend, the market outlook will be dominated by the trend of the finished lower.



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