The future of the RMB will be weaker?
Yesterday, the territory of RMB central parity trend is a little ahead of market expectations, the dollar index or slight appreciation of RMB in the state of down. However, the NDF market in Hong Kong renminbi is still hovering in the depreciation of the range, and the longer the maturity, the greater the extent of the devaluation.
Do the automotive service industry, Ms. Wang has been the name of a considerable portion of RMB assets converted into dollar-denominated assets. She said, feeling that the Chinese economy is compared to the previous uncertainty increased, the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to heat, so the conversion of part of the assets. As far as she revealed that the amount of money reaches a certain level, free of charge. On the whole, her own abacus is still very good.
This reporter has learned that Chinese businessmen, like Ms. Wang to do so seems not isolated cases. However, the total conversion of assets in the end how much from the point of view the conversion funnel, can not be quantified.
"Investment philosophy habit of appreciation of the yuan steady or slight correction in the past may need to be corrected." Singapore's OCBC Bank economist Xie Dongming, the trend of the RMB exchange rate so. He believes that "Overall, the duration of the yuan vulnerable may be more than the past, the past few months is not normal trend may gradually become the norm in the second half."
From the current U.S. dollar, in fact, the dollar the past six months has been in a "bull market". Insiders yesterday, one engaged in gold trading for many years, told reporters that from the gold and the dollar under normal circumstances, the opposite trend of view, she thinks the bull market of the dollar is already underway.
And exchange rate markets also proved this point of view. Non-dollar currencies, emerging economies currencies, the Indian rupee, rupiah and U.S. dollar exchange rates are at historic lows. Moreover, traders said, the present situation, no decrease in may.
However, a long period, there are always some variables. Continuous rise in the dollar, the recent series of disappointing U.S. economic data reporting the market launch the QE3 expected gradually warming up on the Fed. Last Wednesday's meeting on interest rates, the Fed hinted that if the pace of economic recovery has not accelerated the implementation of monetary easing and buy more bonds.
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