The first half of the combined effect of the internal and external factors, the demand for a global drop in the supply of moderate growth, low price volatility "has become the main features of the iron ore market operation.
Expect the second half, with the favorable conditions for economic development, the increase in the positive factors, the effects of policies is gradually emerging iron ore market has gone up, but it should also be noted that the overall market demand is less than in the past, the pressure is still overcapacity . Combined with step-by-step adjustment of industrial structure, the market picked up momentum will be suppressed, spot prices remain low volatility. Initial estimates, translated into 62% of the taste of iron ore, 2.46 billion tons of global iron ore consumption, China's consumption 1.15 billion tons of iron ore.
From a domestic perspective, in the face of complex and volatile situation, the Government attaches great importance to the difficulties and problems in economic development, emphasizing the dependable growth on a more important position, increase policy fine-tuning efforts, and actively take the expanding demand and adjust industrial structure policies and measures to protect the stability of the demand for iron ore from macro fundamentals.
First, macroeconomic remain in the range of steady growth, not plummeting. The first half of the GDP growth was 7.8% higher than the market is generally expected. The PMI index in June was 50.2 percent, the economic slowdown obvious signs of stabilization. China's demand for sufficient impact on the world market for iron ore under the premise, steady economic growth has delivered a positive signal.
Demand a stable support. Regular implementation of major projects in the "12th Five-Year" period to start a number of the overall situation, driven by strong major projects. Major approval of project construction, on the one hand, help to promote the recovery of domestic demand for construction steel; the other hand, driven by the steel construction machinery downstream product demand, the iron ore market will be boosted.
Third, the financial environment continues to loose. In the first half of the interest rate adjustment, lowering standards on the basis of the late central bank will continue to carry out a series of monetary policy operations, on the one hand, by increasing liquidity to stimulate credit growth; the other hand, by cutting interest rates to ease the pressure on the corporate cost of capital, while the policy to continue deepen structural tax measures to reduce the burden for the enterprises to enhance economic vitality.
Abundant supply of mineral resources. From the perspective of the global market, with the railways, ports and mines have been put into the iron ore annualized yield relatively optimistic, initially expected to Vale, the annual production of 314 million tons, an increase of 0.7%; Billiton Annual production of 180 million tons , an increase of 3%; BHP Billiton annual production of 160 million tons, an increase of 10.2%; FMG annual production of 070 million tons, an increase of 31.3%. Four mining companies throughout the year is expected to produce an increase of 8.2% growth rate has increased over the first half.
From the iron and steel industry, the economic growth rate down, and the double impact of overcapacity, exacerbated by the trend of enterprise efficiency low-profit, lack of industrial development potential. From a macro point of view, economic growth is undergoing industrial upgrading and structural adjustment, moderate economic slowdown is inevitable and also necessary. But the deceleration of the traditional heavy and chemical industries in the adjustment, development, new industries not yet completed the relay process, in such a transitional stage is a test for China's macro-control. One is to prevent economic growth based on growth mode conversion process due to "interrupted" come down too fast, steady growth will serve as the second half of the year and even longer the main task. On the other hand pay attention to avoid returned to the old path of short-term stimulus policies, so that the natural path of development of market economy to be disturbed, leading to inflationary pressures and structural adjustment have cropped up again.
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