Qiu Civic nephew, said the second quarter is the biggest variable in the second half is not the European debt, but China's economy.
 
The first half of the two kinetic energy of the Chinese economy - infrastructure and real estate market tumble, combined with China's CPI this year by the period of decline, the United States is expected, the People's Bank in the second half will be a substantial release of liquidity to stimulate the economy. Just need the existence of housing prices in China will be a rational rebound when the associated retail will be a corresponding expansion of the central price control policy will not relax, real estate is difficult to return to the "golden years".
 
Four trillion "economic stimulus plan gave birth to the local financing of over 10 trillion, to excessive local government debt has constrained the development of infrastructure. In the context of global economic recession, the ASEAN Economic contrarian up, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and other ASEAN countries taking over the cheap labor advantage, as global economic growth, a new bright spot. "Made in China" rising costs is an indisputable fact that the Chinese export-oriented enterprises, such as textiles, have been completed in the layout of the East Asian countries, the initial realization of the transfer.
 
Qiu Civic nephew told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, expected the fastest to 2016, China's demographic dividend will be depleted, optimize the industrial structure is imperative. Exports, investment and consumer-driven economy of the three carriage full hold, China's economy has nearly 30 years of the most critical moment.
 
The outcome of the European summit is still lack of maneuverability, the way to go before the debt crisis in Europe. From the debt of Europe since the outbreak of the European Council has carried out 19 times, but so far there is no feasible countermeasures. United States of Europe's future situation in that pessimistic.
 
The current European summit proposed the establishment of the League of European banks to alleviate the Greek deposits fled the trend, a move once the trip, if Greece really out of the euro, European Central Bank will then to the back of the hundreds of billions of euros of debt, so far Europe has not consensus.
 
Spain will be the biggest minefield of the debt crisis in Europe, the banking sector was the hardest hit. Spain's debt ratio is far less than in Italy, even lower than in Germany, but the last decades of the Spanish real estate bubble will be the default rate of the Bank of Spain pushed up to 8.73%, although this figure is lower than its 1994 bad debt rate 9.15 But now the Spanish bank lending has expanded more than fivefold. Hand assistance to the banking sector in May, the Government of Spain, the fourth largest bank Bankia90% of the shares received for the state-owned, Spain in June ? 100 billion aid request and has been allowed to enrich the banking capital from the banking crisis evolved into a government financial crisis .
 
Citigroup expects the second half of 2012, the Spanish government budget deficit will be a sharp increase in applications in June, 100 billion drop in the bucket, just to solve short-term bank liquidity problems.



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