Following after June 7, this year the central bank decision to cut the deposit and lending rates, with the last adjustment, the benchmark deposit and lending interest rates have dropped and loan interest rates have dropped more than deposit rates. Details are as follows: People's Bank of China decided to cut RMB benchmark deposit and lending rates of financial institutions since July 6, 2012. One-year benchmark deposit rate cut of 0.25 percentage points, year benchmark lending interest rate cut by 0.31 percentage points; other deposit and lending interest rates and individual housing provident fund deposit and lending rates be adjusted accordingly. Since the same day, the lower limit of the floating range of lending rates of financial institutions was adjusted to 0.7 times the benchmark interest rate. Individual housing loans interest rate floating range should not be adjusted, financial institutions should continue to strictly enforce the differentiation of the housing credit policy, to continue to curb speculative investment buyers.
Year the central bank cut interest rates affect the geometry of the current downturn in steel market price movements? I believe that from the point of view the short and medium-term impact. Short-term trend:
First, the cut interest rates before the economic data and the second quarter economic data will soon be published in the June release, indicating that the economic data may be rather ugly, which is bearish;
Second, the interest rate cut, non- symmetric interest rate cut, which is rare in history, which largely reflects the determination of the economic growth of the national security and the intensity of shot, this is good. From the performance of the outer disk, the interest rate cut was announced, the LME, New York crude oil futures prices instantly shot up, but as of press time of the author there is a clear trend of finished lower on the surface to a greater extent for the present fears of economic status, or greater than the positive impact of policies.
The domestic stock index futures market is expected tomorrow hard sharp rise in the performance of the steel futures, the spot market will not be too stimulating role. However, in recent days rebar futures market, the market price trend of the High Line, poor stock markets, copper futures price movements, or even to fall, but the rebar futures Firmer Lange electronic trading trends, fell significantly in the Monday Tuesday, three, four three consecutive trading days, the red plate to close, slowing down the momentum in the news today cut interest rates to stimulate it is expected that tomorrow will be better than the performance of other varieties, the probability of rising.
From medium-and long-term trend, the rate cut is one of the recent national stability and economic growth initiatives. This includes the deposit reserve ratio twice this year lowered twice lowered deposit and lending rates as well as speed up the approval rate of the major projects since April and May, these policies are conducive to domestic macroeconomic stabilize. The central bank cut interest rates again indicates that the second quarter, the economy has not yet stabilized and rebounded in June manufacturing pmi data show that the economic downturn, the momentum continues, but the declining trend is slowing down, investment in fixed assets ring in May than there have been a slight increase is a reflection of the economic decline is slowing down.
The overall economic situation is expected to stabilize and even rebound in the middle of the third quarter. Of the steel market is undoubtedly beneficial. In addition, after the first cut lending rates, the domestic real estate sales significantly better most of the major Housing Enterprise completed the first half of the sales targets, to get to the phenomenon of the recent housing prices increased significantly.
The central bank cut interest rates again, while still stressed to control lending to the real estate industry, to prevent the rebound of investment demand, but to cut interest rates to stimulate a more rigid demand for procurement, to promote the rebound of the real estate industry. The improvement of the real estate industry, especially for steel construction steel effect. Lot of good policies, it is expected that the steel market will be the formation of support. At least the recent downward price momentum has slowed, the Tianjin region of 3950-3970 yuan/ton price of hot rolled, rebar prices in Beijing in 4100-4120 yuan/ton, three, Tianjin region of 3800-3820 yuan/ton high cable prices continue to fall space will be limited further downside about 50 yuan/ton, and may even to stabilize, rebound.
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