Since July, the domestic steel market weakness does not change, the prices of some varieties hit a new low. The hot weather is approaching, in the traditional steel consumption off-season, the market pessimism diffuse throughout the steel industry, faced with market supply and demand imbalance, the domestic economic slowdown and sustained international economic downturn three pressure is particularly difficult to pick up the rebound of the road.
Major factors that affect the trend of steel:
Positive aspects of
Policy aspect of the infrastructure is still in progress. "12th Five-Year National Water investment will increase to 1.8 trillion yuan, will invest 38 billion yuan to build mu water-saving projects in the four northeastern provinces in the next four years; Lanzhou rail transport by the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total length of 207 kilometers, planning The total investment of 22.922 billion yuan; from the central to local water conservancy, transportation to other infrastructure facilities have the new plan has introduced.
The market inventory multiple manageable level. Not optimistic about the latter market, the enthusiasm of the market business delivery is significantly lower, and the part to circumvent the market outlook, the risk for the large amount of customers are beginning to take the steel in the form of straight hair, the bulk Jiancang will not have a strong, multi-operating with less feed faster, there are still many cautious steel mills post-policy-based.
Negative aspects of
Form of international and domestic economy is still not optimistic. The economy still faces many uncertainties, the slow economic recovery in the United States, the euro zone sovereign debt crisis after another, although the EU summit came a short-term positive, but the fundamental solution to the problem is still difficult. Domestic aspects of the first quarter GDP growth rate obviously slowed down to 8.1%. Transition to slow down to the steel industry a severe "labor pains" and the domestic and foreign financial and investment institutions on year GDP growth forecast further reduced to 7.6%; informed that the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first quarter, steel smelting and processing industry 2011 compared to a net profit of 34.99 billion yuan into a net loss of 490 million yuan.
Downstream business orders in the doldrums, demand is difficult to fast recovery. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in June, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) PMI is 50.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the rate of decline has slowed down compared to May, but still hit a seven month low.
Shipbuilding industry from January to May shipbuilding index still declined across the board, machinery, household appliances sales to decline in the main, the manufacturing sector continuing weakness in operation.
Steel overcapacity leading to increased competition. Since March, crude steel production has been rising, and once reached a daily average of the historical high of 2.019 million tons, following the national crude steel production declined slightly in May to pick up again in early June, the market has just ignited confidence suffered another hit , although the mid-ring in June fell 1.4 percent, but the daily output of 1.9705 million tons predictive value still can not be underestimated. According to the survey, the proportion of the average production of the nation's major steel mill blast furnace in June was 11.1 percent, compared to last month, a slight increase of 1.6 percentage points, and then in the current critical situation of supply and demand, the current efforts to cut is still far from enough.
On the whole, the negative still accounts for a dominant position, the steel city of converting to change the pattern of disadvantaged lower, analysts believe that yield high imbalance between supply and demand constraints steel market rebound principal contradiction, compared to last year's market price, currently more than at the bottom of the cost of support steel prices again fell deep space is relatively limited, in demand to pick up the way to go under the premise, the control output growth to ease the market supply and demand contradiction to gradually drive the Steel City out of a weak trough, and a rebound pattern
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