June, the positive constant, however, the results of how the steel market does not for the good dynamic, is still its own slump. Into July, the Steel City has also entered the traditional sales season, coupled with the macro good gradually subsided, and expected the steel market in July compared to June miserable.
 
Iron and steel industry information
 
Futures: the main rebar after the opening of the 1210 contract quickly downstream, intraday volatility within a narrow range, midday to close at 4074 yuan, inched up 0.15 percent, far from the 1301 contract narrow ranges, midday to close at 4048 yuan, inched up 0.22 %. Coke, the main 1209 contract continued to rise, midday to close at 1759 yuan, or 1.97 percent.
 
Spot: According to the Chinese steel network monitoring data show, on the spot market, the price of half of the region continue to decline, including Beijing, Tianjin, three rebar fell 10 yuan, and 20-4120 yuan / ton and 4110 yuan / ton.
 
Raw materials: iron ore prices quote steady, external disk 63.5% / 63% Indian iron ore fines at $ 139.5 / t, the domestic Hebei Tangshan Coal Mine 1120 yuan / ton.
 
Inventory: the first quarter of this year the domestic steel the social stock of rapid increase, especially of long products to the inventory faster than in previous years significantly reduced after entering the season in March and April. The end of the second quarter, the overall inventory is still at a high level. Tend to loose monetary policy, the bank is basic to take the attitude of the steel trade tight but not absolute, measures of merit-based lending, appropriate relaxation investment, stabilize the market sentiment. Dealer panic suppression, expected improvement, power not Paohuo. Therefore, we expect the steel stocks in the second half of the year as a whole still remain high, along with the slow recovery of the demand for steel long down cycle, but slow down slow.
 
Macro-areas: the European debt crisis, Europe's relatively poor economic performance, high unemployment, price downstream, the economy entered a risk of negative growth. Is fairly severe at this stage of China's macroeconomic situation, GDP growth continued to decline, prices continued downward, the fixed asset investment growth also gradually lower. However, the means of the hands of the Government to regulate the economy still more, which cut the deposit reserve rate is still much room.
 
Capacity: According to the latest data of the China Iron and Steel Association, the focus on large and medium-sized enterprises in mid-June crude steel output to 1.655 million tons, the mid-ring fell 1.74 percent, the national estimate is 1.9705 million tons, the mid-ring decreased by 1.4%. The data also showed that the mid-end of key large and medium-sized steel enterprises 12.15 million tons of steel stocks, late ring, an increase of 5.6%.
 
The demand side: from the first half of the year by the downturn in real estate investment, drag, steel demand remained weak in the second quarter, showing not the busy season of the stock market. In order to stimulate the economy, the Government introduced in May a new round of stimulus to accelerate the construction of a number of key investment projects and the start of the car to the countryside, home appliances and energy-saving subsidies stimulus able to pull the part of steel demand, the decline of steel demand of hedge real estate. Policy to stimulate the time lag, the pulling effect of the steel demand in the short term may have hit new lows and the bottoming process. Estate new construction is expected to improve in the second half of the year, investment in key projects in boosting the demand is expected to be reflected in the third quarter.
 
Steel areas: July 1, Sha Steel, Yong Steel, transit, such as steel mills on the same day issued a building materials price policy in early July, and three ex-factory price of steel rebar, wire, plate, screw varieties are lowered.
 
According to statistics, July 1, on the 2nd price adjustment information in early July cut the ex-factory price of steel products more than the three steel 30 steel mills, a slight increase in addition to a steel rebar ex-factory price other steel post steel products ex-factory prices are down. The data further showed that in two days, 28 steel mills have reduced the ex-factory price of construction steel 20-150 yuan / ton range.
 
Institutional point of view
 
East Asia Futures: Yesterday rebar significantly lighten up, some action but has no long, long the face of the current downturn in market conditions, up pushing up the enthusiasm is not high, and compared to other varieties, the rebar trend is still weak yesterday, prices return to around 4085 yuan, an important position in the long admission enthusiasm is still not very positive, the outlook remains to be seen the initiative of its admission, long substantial Masukura to the words, or change the decline bears will be temporarily avoided.



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