China Logistics and Purchasing Association, National Bureau of Statistics and Services Survey Center recently released data, June China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) PMI is 50.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, a record seven month low.
Economists Luo Baihui that, as leading indicators of economic operation, PMI index showing the situation continued to decline, but with the further introduction of relevant policies, the slowdown in economic growth trend or will end, and showing signs of stabilization and recovery is expected in the third quarter.
 
Bank of Communications recently released a report that, inside and outside the required synchronization slowdown is the main reason for the economically disadvantaged in the first half of the report is expected in the second quarter economic growth may still be at low levels, and likely to "break". But the report also believes that the effect of recent government continued steady growth policies introduced, in May, the internal and external demand has signs of recovery, expected the third quarter, economic growth is expected to stabilization and recovery.
 
The People's Bank of China has made relatively cautiously optimistic judgment on the current economic operation situation. The second quarterly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee has pointed out that China's economic and financial overall stable economic growth in the target range, price inflation continued to fall. Next policy direction, Luo Baihui that the magnitude of the policy to pre-tune fine-tuning or will continue to increase, in which monetary policy will remain the main
areas of policy change.
 
"We expect the reserve ratio will be two to three times the reduction in the benchmark interest rate in ten years, the mean levels, and inflationary pressures may rise at the end of the year, the central bank cut interest rates again is unlikely. "Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of that.
 
Since the second quarter, the central bank lowered the reserve ratio and interest rates, and increase operating policy efforts to pre-tune fine-tune the intensity of the previous month significantly increased. "CICC chief economist Peng Wensheng, judgment, monetary conditions in China generally biased tight, while inflation is accelerating down trend, the next step is the policy of pre-tune fine-tuning of the main areas of monetary policy.
 
"It is envisaged that the space still cut interest rates twice this year and 2-3 times lower deposit quasi possible, in the second half will show the situation of lowering standards and cut interest rates alternately Wensheng Peng pointed out.
 
The regular meeting of central bank in the second quarter monetary policy committee also noted that the next step is to continue to implement prudent monetary policy to further enhance the policy relevance, flexibility and forward-looking, the total is modest, prudent and flexible requirements, taking into account the promotion of stable and rapid economic development maintain price stability and financial risks. Integrated use of various monetary policy tools to guide the steady and moderate growth in money supply and credit to maintain a reasonable scale of financing.
 
China Logistics and Purchasing Federation of Iron and Steel Logistics Committee in July 1 officially released the PMI index of the steel industry in June, the index was 49.2% in June, the chain picked up 0.4 percentage points. PMI showed that the positive factors of the domestic steel market is gradually increasing. Consider growth policies at the national stability measures have been put forward since May, the effect of policies in the second half of the year is expected to be gradually emerging, post-market price of steel is expected to bounce back. Main sub-index, production index, finished goods inventory index decline in new orders and new export orders index bottoming out.
 
The steel industry production index in June was 50.3 percent last month, down 3.6 percentage points. Although the number is still expansion of the range, but has two consecutive months to fall. Production-related procurement activities have shown a shrinking trend. The increase in domestic steel mills maintenance plan since the mid and late June, coupled with poor overall profitability of the industry, in the matter United Steel Logistics special committee is expected to, domestic crude steel production is expected to ring in July than continue to decline, the peak production period is likely to have in the past.
 
In June, the new orders index sharply last month, down 17.7 percent, rebounded by 4.8 percentage points to 46.3%, indicating that the market demand tends to rebound. Meanwhile, new export orders index also showed upward trend, the month the chain picked up 3.9 percentage points to 47.6%. According to customs statistics, in May, the country's steel exports 5.23 million tons, the chain increased by 560,000 tons, an increase of 12.0%.
 
June, however, domestic steel prices continue to fall, the country's stable growth policy measures is still in the conduction process, the relative lack of market demand issues are still outstanding, the domestic steel prices have lowered prices.
 
Although the indicators turn for the better factors, but in the matter United Steel logistics special committee noted that the two factors restrain the price rebound, on the one hand, the iron and steel high inventory levels, as of June 29, the National Society of steel inventory 15.6303 million tons, Pericyclic than a rebound, and to the inventory for several weeks to slow down. In addition, the cost of support has obviously weakened. Significant downturn in the purchasing price index of iron and steel industry in June, following May by 15.3 percentage points to 30.7 percent, continue to rise slightly reduced by 0.5 percentage points to 30.2 percent, the lowest point since 2006.
 
These factors, economists Luo Baihui that the Steel City has experienced prolonged decline in the market is currently being repeated bottoms, the latter is expected to bounce back. Note, however, the current short-term weakening trend of the industrial economy is difficult to change, while the South into the hot rainy season, blocked the construction site, downstream and traders purchasing plans to delay, which will make the market highly variable.



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