Until the end of June, the nation's major markets (high line, steel, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coils, plate), five varieties of steel prices low within a narrow range consolidation run, market transactions are generally weak: 6.5mm high speed wire. The reported price of 4056 yuan, down 49 yuan over the same period the previous month; 25mm secondary thread, the average price of 4050 yuan, down 25 yuan, Shenyang, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and other parts of the market rebound; 1.0mm cold rolled sheet average price reported in the 4898 yuan down 154 yuan; 20mm plate the average price reported for 4065 yuan or 82 yuan monthly decline of the market in Chengdu reached 200 yuan, the largest decline.
 
June, steel prices "weak"
 
Steel market in June, the good can be described as constant, interest rate, the project examination and approval of major infrastructure projects to accelerate, the subsidy policy to stimulate consumption of household appliances, automobiles and other constantly; However, in the case of such a multi-good prop up the market, with the exception of lack of demand fundamentals support the rebound in steel prices, such as a flash in the pan, then enter the consolidation phase of stuck on the ups and downs of a dilemma.
 
 
The author believes that the reason why so many good policies can not be caused by a strong rebound in steel prices grimace; foremost among which is the current steel market is too rational stage; Although this reason is the "once was bitten by a snake to a decade twice shy "self-defense, but it was overdone, even erode China's steel trade industry a dare to" store gambling, risk-taking "tradition, become very careful.
 
Good policy more, the release did not cause the end-user to enter the market purchase, fill inventory needs real case; the majority of the steel trade, in particular, are the middlemen market operations for a living almost completely lost the Voice; in previous years that in case of major positive stimulus, and market outlook, demand is expected to stockpile strong case a wide range of bargain-hunting phenomenon of the gambling market gone; steel market also lost the last active atmosphere of reason in the demand for off-season. High capacity, low demand and financial difficulties, the business mentality of a weak multi-suppressed steel lingered for a long time can only regret the callback. Steel prices in June as a whole showed a "weak" attitude is not only a weak prices, the transaction is also weak, weaker mentality.
 
About to enter summer in July, the domestic steel market is a continuation of "snow" in June, or continue to warm boiled frog ", Aung San, or" prima donna "? We explore the twelve extraordinary from the following aspects.
 
Domestic steel stocks are still running high
 
Since June, the domestic part of the steel mills to increase maintenance efforts; but it is undeniable that more new capacity is being gradually put into operation, especially steel production capacity to add a lot; to bring the difficulty of the latter part of the steel mills as a whole down production . At the same time, the printing of spread of the local governments in order to maintain good economic data requirements for iron and steel industry production can continue to maintain the normal level, to the forthcoming eighteen large gift; estimated in July steel production can be a whole will be showing state-owned high-yield, private companies cut the phenomenon.
 
In these circumstances, the domestic steel community inventory difficult steep decline; consecutive to the inventory of 18 weeks of iron and steel industry in accordance with the seasonal factors, conduction, stock speed this week to go further down; the future deterioration of the steel export situation. domestic end-demand is difficult from the context of the possibility of the steel stocks are still running high.
According to the monitoring system data, until the end of June, the total social stock of the nation's major markets (wire, thread, hot-rolled, cold rolled, plate), five varieties of steel 15,630,300 tons, up 69,600 tons more than last week. 18 weeks of continuous to the inventory of an end. Wire stock was 1.5036 million tons, down 0.41 percent the previous week; thread inventory of 6,218,400 tons, an increase of 0.28 percent the previous week; hot-rolled coil stock to 4.1576 million tons, an increase of 0.87% last week; cold-rolled coil stock for 1.6396 million tons, increased by 0.15% last week; plate stock was 1.6691 million tons, an increase of 0.82 percent the previous week.
 
Weak steel market demand will be vulnerable die hard
Capacity is difficult to considerable decline in the same time, the downstream industry is weak mainly. First, the growth of manufacturing industry continued to fall, and a variety of policies to stimulate consumption failed to pull the manufacturers of production and sales growth; in the major steel industry, general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, railroad and ship major steel industry growth continued to decline, making the cold rolled sheet market is extremely weak demand, related species Gangjia only eke out weak stability in the cost of support pattern.
 
Followed by infrastructure, highway, real estate, protection of housing projects and other industries, despite the country several times to introduce policies to support, expect a series of major project construction to stabilize economic growth; but part of the project is still going the preparation procedures, more project because financing is difficult to place and progress is slow. Overall, the short-term demand for steel is difficult since the industry downturn of the domestic terminal.
 
May steel export situation is substantially better; But as the global steel overcapacity, the steel further decline in demand, coupled with the euro zone crisis unsolved always constraints of global economic trends; Europe and the United States and Japan and other countries have increased exports of all types of steel anti-dumping investigations; global steel trade protection war is a quick fix to stimulate; late steel export situation is not optimistic. In this case, in our judgment, the protection of the housing project does not appear to accelerate the summer of 2011 like that of the summer blowout construction, weak fundamentals are hard to change the pattern of the steel market demand in the coming July.
 
Loose capital side but it is difficult to direct role of Steel City
In view of the first five months of economic data is far lower than expected, the state is stepping up efforts to introduce a series of stimulus policies in order to ensure steady economic growth, including cutting interest rates drop prospective, speed up, increase the investment and construction of major infrastructure project; on weeks, the central bank is a record-breaking consecutive conducted two reverse repurchase operations, its the end of the quarter-end release liquidity intention is very clear.
 
Understanding of the multi-agency, the market generally cautious about the economic performance data for June, so, in July will once again usher in a drop quasi expected; loose market funds face a very clear signal. But analysts pointed out that the financial markets liquidity is more relaxed, and the latter more liberal trends; but are difficult to flow directly into the steel market. He said the China's steel industry, especially steel trade enterprise in the banking system has serious integrity of the end of the case, even some banks to directly pull the steel trade and industry blacklist; a step-by-step loans, financing difficulties is overwhelming most of the steel trade enterprise in China.



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