teel prices again hit new lows down. June 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar futures continuation of decline, the main 1210 contract closed at 4063 yuan per ton from the early 3996 yuan per ton low stone's throw away.
Rebar futures began to hit 23 May 3996 yuan per ton, entered a bottoming process. "Tang Jiabin judgment, an analyst at Everbright Futures," after the rebar futures rose only an oversold bounce, which is destined to The rebound height is limited, the industry chain from the point of view, the steel city is still in the doldrums. "
Medium-term futures analyst Huang Huiwen said in an interview with the "International Finance reporter: June 20, the rebar futures rebound per tonne to 4150 yuan, the price has become a high point of the steel price short-term."
Rebound after the end of the market participants that steel prices difficult to pick up longer period of time will be repeated shock bottoms.
From the industry cycle, the peak season of the steel industry can be used "golden nine silver ten" to summarize. July-September coincided with the height of summer, the temperature rise around the operating rate must be reduced, this time often is the traditional off-season. In addition, the constraint on rising steel prices, the biggest obstacle is still the macroeconomic regulation and control of the real estate market. Since March, the real estate market turnover has to heat up, prices have rebounded, but the extent is more limited.
"Ultimately, the purchase of policies that hinder investment in housing demand, no signs of relaxation of the regulators of the real estate macroeconomic regulation and control, and even market rumors of more local government property fine-tune the action coefficient was stopped.
Can be predicted in the short term real estate market will not large and loose, and thus can determine the demand for steel is difficult to have a big improvement. "Tangjia Bin said," coupled with the recent weakness in the international iron ore prices, domestic port inventory high, the cost of steel prices lost support, so the third quarter steel prices not contribute much. "
Huang Huiwen also believes that the demand is not good, in most areas of the country wetter, affecting steel shipments. Property market, although the volume has been warmer, but just need to purchase the majority, if the second half of no significant policy favorable, then the magnitude of the real estate market volume and price go up fear restrained, steel prices can not form a significant positive. "Rebar facing pressure to the inventory as a whole, the social stock of digestion process slowed down, the demand can not be fast start, steel is hard to rebound." Said Huang Huiwen.
Huang Huiwen expects steel prices will continue at the bottom of the consolidation pattern, below the short-term point of view there is certainly room to fall, but not much room. Near the previous lows of 4000 yuan per ton, the front line has some support in the absence of major positive background, the steel price will be 4150 yuan per ton for the high stage, around 4000 yuan per ton to support the continuation of weak shocks trend.
However, Tang Jiabin worth looking forward to good news: on the one hand, capital is expected to gradually relaxed. Domestic economic growth is too slow, the first and second quarter economic data has not been satisfactory, if the third-quarter economic growth remains weak, then the management is very likely in September and October after the introduction of incentive policies to ensure economic growth stability, which will benefit the Steel City to pick up. On the other hand, the management has been issued to encourage investment in infrastructure, voice, if substantive measures, will also boost steel prices.
Other News:
Long period of time steel prices will be repeated shocks bottoming
The latest news of the South China Sea: The Philippines said that Huangyan Islan
Chairman of the Council of Europe, said on deepening euro zone integration route
Capacity release and rapid steel price decline space still
U.S. media agitation to help the Philippines won the Huangyan Island
Iron and steel industry adversity long long-term survival of the Road
South Korea and Japan intended to sign military agreement the parties reacted st
Downstream industry funds distress steel market has been drag
