Domestic market, steel prices decreased
Weak demand in the major steel industry, raw material prices decline, crude steel production is still a high level of case, domestic steel prices continue to fall in May. The latest data show that China Steel Industry Association CSPI composite steel price index, a decline of 3.67 points to 117.52 points, down 3.03%; compared with last year, down 18.41 points, a drop of 13.54%. China composite steel price index fell to lowest in 17 months, and for three consecutive months below the same period last year, but with qoq slightly narrowed.
End of May, the the CISA monitoring eight varieties of steel prices have declined, including high line, larger rebar decline, respectively, Central fell 4.52% and 4.46%; angle decreased by 1.39%; plate varieties, hot rolled coil plate and plate drop, down 2.95% and 3.96% respectively. Cold-rolled sheet and galvanized sheet were down 1.96% and 0.77%; hot-rolled seamless pipe prices fell 1.61 percent.
In May, the domestic market, steel prices showed a downward trend by week. June, two weeks before the prices continue to fall until the second week of June, the steel price decline for the eighth consecutive week.
Is not only a decline in domestic steel prices, the manufacturing growth rate down the impact of European and American countries, the international steel market prices in May the chain but also from up to down. Among them, the prices of long products remained stable, but the sheet metal prices decreased. In addition, North America, Europe, market steel prices down as well, only a small section in the Asian market, steel prices have risen.
Steel market supply and demand is still sharp
China Steel Association pointed out that the main reason for the downturn in the domestic market, steel prices have two points: First, the manufacturing sector growth continued to fall, market demand, weak growth; crude steel production to maintain a high level, the oversupply situation has not markedly improved.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 1 May, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) an increase of 20.1 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower than the growth rate in April; real estate development and investment growth of 18.5%, compared with an April down 0.2 percentage points; May, above-scale industrial added value increased by 9.6% in real terms over the previous month growth accelerated by 0.3 percentage points.
However, in the major steel industry, general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, railways and ships and other transportation equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computers, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing and electricity, heat production and supply growth of the industry and other major steel industry continued to decline, respectively 0.4,5.9,2.4,1.3,1.9, and 1.8 percent drop the previous month; Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 percent, down 2.9 percentage points, though still at 50 % or more, but which new orders and new export orders index were 49.8% and 50.4%, down 4.7 percent and 1.8 percent respectively over the previous month; total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 13.8 percent the previous month growth rate down 0.3 percentage points . The steel industry growth rate continued to drop, weak growth of domestic market demand for steel.
National Bureau of Statistics also show that May, the national crude steel output reached 61.234 million tons, an increase of 2.5%; crude steel average daily production level of 1.9753 million tons, a decline of 43,700 tons, a decline of 2.16%. May crude steel output has decreased, but still higher than the average daily production level of the first four months. The latest statistics from the China Steel Association data show that the production of large steel enterprises are still high: 1.6847 million tons, the average daily crude steel production of the key steel enterprises in early June, mid-chain growth of 4.5%; National estimates crude steel all yield of 1.9994 million tons, with a mid-ring growth of 2.03 percent.
According to customs statistics, the country exported 5.23 million tons of steel in May, the chain increased by 560,000 tons, an increase of 12.0%; imported 1.32 million tons of steel, the chain increased 190,000 tons, an increase of 16.8%; 30,000 tons of imported steel billets, 10000 ton. The full-month equivalent to 4.13 million tons of net exports of crude steel chain increased by 38 million tons. Calculated according to the above data, the May average daily domestic crude steel apparent consumption was 1.8421 million tons, less than 52,100 tons. In case of further slowdown in demand growth in the domestic market, steel production continued to maintain a high level, the oversupply of steel market has not changed.
Late market will continue to the low volatility run
China Steel Association pointed out that since the beginning of this year, China's economic growth rate despite the fall, but still higher than the rest of the world's major economies. The central government has dependable growth as an important macro-control goals, expected late domestic demand is expected to continue growing, but the situation of oversupply of steel prices difficult to substantially increase, will still run trend was low volatility.
Premier Wen Jiabao stressed that the economic situation in the six provinces of the forum held in Wuhan from May 18 to 20, China's economic development and domestic and international environment is more complicated, to fulfill the general tone while maintaining stability, dependable growth put a more important position, and in a targeted manner to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, timely and moderate pre-tune fine-tuning and expanding domestic demand, stable external demand to promote stable and rapid economic development.
At present, the state has arranged 36.3 billion yuan of financial subsidies to promote the consumption of energy-saving appliances, automobiles and other products, and enhance the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth. Actively promote the "12th Five-Year Plan major project implementation schedule, started a number of the overall situation, driven by strong construction project; June 8th Chinese People's Bank was down 0.25 percent benchmark deposit and lending interest rates of financial institutions . Countries on a series of macroeconomic policies is timely and appropriate pre-tune fine-tuning, and will surely promote China's stable economic development, especially with the expansion of domestic demand and implementation of the policy, the domestic market demand for steel is expected to continue to grow.
China Steel Association believes that the post-market need to focus on the following three main problems:
First, the weak demand in the international market, steel exports more difficult. By Europe and the United States and other developed economies, economic growth downturn, the international steel market demand is declining. May exports in the Chinese manufacturing PMI new orders index dropped 1.8 percentage points from last month. The same time, due to the increase of dual anti-friction in international trade, the exports of steel products, difficulty will be increased.
Crude steel production level is high, steel oversupply situation will continue. The production level of 1.9753 million tons in crude steel day of May, the Central than the decline, but still higher than the level a year earlier. According to statistics, one in May, the national steel industry investment in fixed assets, accumulated 204.4 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7 percent, the growth rate increased 3.2 percentage points over the same period last year. Due to the rapid expansion of production capacity release, and a high degree of product homogeneity, market competition is more fierce.
Imported iron ore prices high and difficult to reverse the situation of the low efficiency of enterprises. According to monitoring data in the China Steel Association, June 15, the CSPI domestic steel price index lower than that of the last week of 0.13%, but China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) imported iron ore price was $ 136.40/ton higher than last week 1.89%. Iron ore prices high, the late iron and steel enterprises high-cost, low efficiency of the situation is difficult to reverse.
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