The United States precipice on the financial
 
On June 20 of the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, the Federal Reserve to the U.S. 2012 economic growth forecast down from 2.4% to 2.9% to 1.9% to 2.4%; the same time, this year the unemployment rate to 8% to 8.2% . Also lowered its economic forecast released in May 2013 the prospects for economic development, and expected 2013 GDP growth will be 2.2% to 2.8%, the unemployment rate between 7.5% and 8%, two sets of data mean difference expected in April. Up and down of a series of data have shown the weakness of the U.S. economic recovery.
 
The weakness of perhaps will continue, a member of the Financial Advisory Roundtable of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, researcher at the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Stanford University professor Darrell Duffie, "First Financial Daily, said:" The slow trend of the U.S. economic recovery will continuation of at least after 2014, there will be quite a long time. "
 
From the point of view of the current U.S. economic recovery, As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the weak U.S. economic recovery is mainly subject to the housing market slump, domestic fiscal policy and European economic recession drag on, can be described as "less abroad.
Darrell Duffie, said: "The debt crisis in Europe is still fermenting, even the possibility of the collapse of the euro, the risk may be caused by the crisis on the U.S. economy will increase further."
 
However, CSC, an analyst told this newspaper that: "With the upgrade of the rescue-scale debt crisis in Europe is already into the high stage, the crisis has been relatively moderate."
 
From the domestic level, the United States "fiscal cliff. "Financial cliff" refers to since the beginning of the Bush administration tax cuts and unemployment subsidies, etc. will be due the end of the year, the presidential election and the tug of war between the two parties, whether or not these tax cuts will be postponed still difficult to set.
 
According to projections of Goldman Sachs research report, if the end of the Congress can not solve the problem of "fiscal cliff" of fiscal policy for economic growth in the first half of 2013 will have a nearly 4 percent, dragged down.
 
The reporter interviewed a number of analysts, they believe that in view of the U.S. monetary policy room for maneuver has been very limited, whether it is to distort the operation or the third round of quantitative easing on the economy stimulus utility are not very significant.
 
Above CSC analyst said: "The U.S. economic stimulus package should begin from fiscal policy to stimulate consumption, from a rational perspective, the new U.S. government may extend the tax cuts expire at the end of a series of policy."
 
Goldman Sachs research report that if Congress extends the tax and expenditure policies will expire, the negative impact of fiscal austerity for the growth will drop to about 0.5 percentage points.
Debt in Europe in the mud
 
Reform of the euro zone economies will have to face the crunch and growth of binary paradox.
 
Moneta, research institutions, the debt crisis in Europe will change the cyclical crisis event impact, the main stage pressure to repay debt warming and the continued economic weakness and structural reforms to promote heavy resistance.
 
Moneta said in its research report, the future of Europe's debt crisis will constitute a continuation of the crisis and the turbulent state of low volatility and high-risk co-exist. "In the future, low volatility may be reflected in the contingency plans and political compromise to avoid short-term extreme events, the occurrence of similar financial institution failures; high risk is likely to be reflected in the debt problems of the market started to break their bottom line, a threat against the euro and the euro area constitutes a form of . "
 
Citibank Global Capital analyst Qiu Civic nephew that, under the background of the Spanish crisis is escalating, the ECB recently cut rates or the introduction of a new round of long-term re-financing projects (LTRO). The rescue difficulties, the fact that Germany's refusal to shared the attitude of sovereign debt, the debt crisis in Europe can only be phased solution to gain time, but could not make substantive progress in the unified property rights issues.
 
In addition, in the balance of crunch and growth, countries have not yet found the right way out. An analysis of the sources told reporters: "It is ridiculous to cut spending in the economy is so weak background."
 
In fact, the logic behind this is easy to understand, directly lead to the contraction of consumer demand, deficit reduction, lower corporate profitability, which led to long-term high unemployment, and continue to impact the private sector and the bank's bad debt, and then bring the established budget targets, adjust the pressure and the financial system the extreme vulnerability. Greece, Spain, Italy, the current dilemma is the reality version of this logic. This pattern continues, and the short term is difficult to find a suitable solution to the troubled country in Europe it is difficult to find a new economic growth point to a fundamental change in the current economic decline.
 
The emerging economies of the growth pressure
 
Austenitic and ferritic heat-resistant stainless steel, high temperature alloys, aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys such as heating and cooling process, did not change with the prime heterogeneous materials, as well as some copper alloys and titanium alloys, etc., in the forging process to produce and defect of heat treatment approach can not be improved.
   
Heating and cooling process of the heterogeneous transformation of the material of the same factors, such as structural steel and martensitic stainless steel, due to improper forging process caused some organizational defects or raw materials left over from some defects, the quality of heat treatment after forging a significant impact. Some examples are as follows:
   
1) the organization of some forging defects, after forging, heat treatment can be improved, can still be satisfied with the organization and performance after the final heat treatment of the forgings. For example, in the general overheating of the structure of steel forgings, coarse-grained Widmanstatten structure, eutectoid steel and bearing steel due to improper cooling caused by slight carbide network.
   
2) forging tissue defects, with the normal heat treatment is more difficult to eliminate the required high temperature normalizing repeated normalizing low temperature decomposition of high-temperature diffusion annealing and other measures can be improved. For example, the low times of coarse grain, 9Cr18 stainless steel twin carbides.
   
3) the organization of some forging defects, general heat treatment process can not be eliminated, resulting in the final heat treatment after forging performance, even failure. For example, a stone-like fracture and facet fracture, over-burning, stainless steel ferrite with carbides in high alloy tool steel for ledeburite network and bands.
   
4) the organization of some forging defects, in the final heat treatment will be further development and even cause cracking. For example, the coarse grain structure in alloy structural steel forgings, heat treatment after forging has not been improved, carbon nitriding and quenching thick and performance of the martensite needles is a common cause of failure; thick ribbon in the high-speed steel carbide material, quenching often lead to cracking.
   
Common defect in the forging process and its causes in the forging of common defects in specific description. It should be noted that the major defects of the common defects in a variety of forming methods and types of materials forging has its own rules.
   
Forming method, the forces, the stress-strain characteristics are not the same, thus the main defects that may arise is not the same. For example, a major drawback in the billet upsetting is the crack of the vertical or 45 ° direction of the side surface of the ingot upsetting the bottom residues often cast Organization; be a major drawback of rectangular cross section billet stretching the surface of the lateral crack and corner crack, the internal diagonal cracks and transverse cracks; be a major drawback in the open die forging is sufficient dissatisfaction with the folding and wrong shift. The major forming the common defects in the process will be detailed in the main forming processes, defects and countermeasures.
   
Different types of materials, due to its composition, organization, and heating, forging and cooling process, organizational change and the mechanical behavior is also different, thus forging process is not possible defects also has its own specialty. For example, the defect of high alloy tool steel forgings ledeburite carbide particles thick, uneven distribution and crack defects in high temperature alloy forgings, mainly coarse-grained and crack; defects of austenitic stainless steel forgings intergranular chromium depletion resistance to intergranular corrosion of ferrite ribbon organization and crack; aluminum alloy forgings defects is the main coarse grain, folding, eddy current, wear flow.




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