The United States precipice on the financial
 
On June 20 of the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, the Federal Reserve to the U.S. 2012 economic growth forecast down from 2.4% to 2.9% to 1.9% to 2.4%; the same time, this year the unemployment rate to 8% to 8.2% . Also lowered its economic forecast released in May 2013 the prospects for economic development, and expected 2013 GDP growth will be 2.2% to 2.8%, the unemployment rate between 7.5% and 8%, two sets of data mean difference expected in April. Up and down of a series of data have shown the weakness of the U.S. economic recovery.
 
The weakness of perhaps will continue, a member of the Financial Advisory Roundtable of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, researcher at the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Stanford University professor Darrell Duffie, "First Financial Daily, said:" The slow trend of the U.S. economic recovery will continuation of at least after 2014, there will be quite a long time. "
 
From the point of view of the current U.S. economic recovery, As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the weak U.S. economic recovery is mainly subject to the housing market slump, domestic fiscal policy and European economic recession drag on, can be described as "less abroad.
Darrell Duffie, said: "The debt crisis in Europe is still fermenting, even the possibility of the collapse of the euro, the risk may be caused by the crisis on the U.S. economy will increase further."
 
However, CSC, an analyst told this newspaper that: "With the upgrade of the rescue-scale debt crisis in Europe is already into the high stage, the crisis has been relatively moderate."
 
From the domestic level, the United States "fiscal cliff. "Financial cliff" refers to since the beginning of the Bush administration tax cuts and unemployment subsidies, etc. will be due the end of the year, the presidential election and the tug of war between the two parties, whether or not these tax cuts will be postponed still difficult to set.
 
According to projections of Goldman Sachs research report, if the end of the Congress can not solve the problem of "fiscal cliff" of fiscal policy for economic growth in the first half of 2013 will have a nearly 4 percent, dragged down.
 
The reporter interviewed a number of analysts, they believe that in view of the U.S. monetary policy room for maneuver has been very limited, whether it is to distort the operation or the third round of quantitative easing on the economy stimulus utility are not very significant.
 
Above CSC analyst said: "The U.S. economic stimulus package should begin from fiscal policy to stimulate consumption, from a rational perspective, the new U.S. government may extend the tax cuts expire at the end of a series of policy."
 
Goldman Sachs research report that if Congress extends the tax and expenditure policies will expire, the negative impact of fiscal austerity for the growth will drop to about 0.5 percentage points.
 
Debt in Europe in the mud
 
Reform of the euro zone economies will have to face the crunch and growth of binary paradox.
 
Moneta, research institutions, the debt crisis in Europe will change the cyclical crisis event impact, the main stage pressure to repay debt warming and the continued economic weakness and structural reforms to promote heavy resistance.
 
Moneta said in its research report, the future of Europe's debt crisis will constitute a continuation of the crisis and the turbulent state of low volatility and high-risk co-exist. "In the future, low volatility may be reflected in the contingency plans and political compromise to avoid short-term extreme events, the occurrence of similar financial institution failures; high risk is likely to be reflected in the debt problems of the market started to break their bottom line, a threat against the euro and the euro area constitutes a form of . "
 
Citibank Global Capital analyst Qiu Civic nephew that, under the background of the Spanish crisis is escalating, the ECB recently cut rates or the introduction of a new round of long-term re-financing projects (LTRO). The rescue difficulties, the fact that Germany's refusal to shared the attitude of sovereign debt, the debt crisis in Europe can only be phased solution to gain time, but could not make substantive progress in the unified property rights issues.
 
In addition, in the balance of crunch and growth, countries have not yet found the right way out. An analysis of the sources told reporters: "It is ridiculous to cut spending in the economy is so weak background."
In fact, the logic behind this is easy to understand, directly lead to the contraction of consumer demand, deficit reduction, lower corporate profitability, which led to long-term high unemployment, and continue to impact the private sector and the bank's bad debt, and then bring the established budget targets, adjust the pressure and the financial system the extreme vulnerability. Greece, Spain, Italy, the current dilemma is the reality version of this logic. This pattern continues, and the short term is difficult to find a suitable solution to the troubled country in Europe it is difficult to find a new economic growth point to a fundamental change in the current economic decline.
 
The emerging economies of the growth pressure
 
After 2008, the troubled European and American economic growth, emerging market economies, with China as the representative of the "locomotive" of the mission was given to reverse the global economic decline, but since the second half of last year, the growth of emerging economies began to pressure. In the first half of this year, China's economic growth is slowing down; India, Brazil, Russia and other countries suffered economic difficulties are more obvious. These emerging market countries have reduced their interest rates to stimulate economic development.
 
Lower interest rates to stimulate the economy is only short-term stopgap approach, and now the already high level of inflation in India and Brazil to the outrageous, the operating space is very limited. The above analysis, sources told this reporter, "To change the current process of economic growth of emerging market countries the plight of fundamentally depends on the change in the way of economic growth in these countries. "
 
"Whether it is the BRIC countries or civet six countries (CIVITS) high degree of dependence on foreign capital, once the withdrawal of foreign investment, will lose a lot of employment opportunities, benefit from the infrastructure construction into a shell, which is a lot Emerging economies face the risk. "the analyst said," only their own endogenous economic cycle to establish a sound system, these emerging economies to be able to truly become the 'locomotive' of the global economy. "
 
BRIC countries, India and Brazil in economic governance there is a great defect, infrastructure is not perfect. "India's serious gap between rich and poor, and lead to family monopoly rent-seeking is very serious, while Brazil and Russia is highly dependent on resource exports has also led to its external economic risk-resisting ability is very weak. Once the external environment changes, these countries are vulnerable to shocks. "a commodity analyst told reporters.
 
However, analysts said, the populous countries, China and India as the representative of the demographic dividend in the current economic competition is a big advantage. Jianyin Investment Research Center director Zhang Zhi before Dr. told reporters, said: "In other countries generally face of population aging in the context of the future engine of the world economy must belong to the emerging market countries with a large number of young labor force."




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