European debt crisis is far from over, does not breathe a sigh of relief because the Greek general election ended
1.Greece has the necessary fuel, unsustainable fiscal operation. According to the Greek Ministry of Finance is expected to the cash reserves of Greece more than two billion euros, only able to support the normal operation of the country until July 20, plus in August, 3.9 billion euros Bonds and left the negotiations of the new Greek government The time window is running out.
2.Spain is likely to turn to full relief. The bad debt rate of the Spanish banking sector in April rose to its highest level since 1994, 8.72%, Spain's banking problems become increasingly serious. In Monday's bond yields, Spain ten years bond yields and CDS was to refresh the record high of the euro-zone era, in addition, Italy's yield rose sharply, which also makes Spain and Italy to become the next market focus The focus of Spain may soon become the "Five" European pig full of countries receiving assistance.
Off-season impact of weak demand, Steel City for greater than the still sharp contradictions
1, hot weather and the South during the rainy season will continue to affect the construction site. As temperatures continue to rise, demand for steel will be further weakened.
2, steel prices inventory is still high: As of June 21, 2012, the country's 26 major markets five varieties of steel (rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coils and plate) social stock 1542.7 million tons the previous week fell by 1.1 million tons, for 18 weeks of inventory decline, marking the longest down cycle since statistics. But compared to last year (June 24, 2011), the total inventory is still higher than the 1.11 million tons, rebar and wire rod of the total inventory of 1.63 million tons higher than last year.
3, crude steel production remained high: According to the China Steel Association data show that average daily production in early June crude steel to pick up again to 200 million tons, the steel supply pressure continued to increase. This summer, the power gap is significantly narrowed, while economic growth has yet to stabilize and rebound, the late steel oversupply situation is still hard to significant improvement in pressure on the stock is still hard to alleviate.
Market interest rates rise, the capital side is still tight in July
Bank overnight and 7-day repo rate last week, both rose to the highest level since the end of February. Since the end of the second quarter, semi-annual disclosure point, do superb storage rate of flow indicators, the banking agencies on the financial out of funds is noticeably cautious, leading to tension between short-term supply and demand of funds face. In addition, the project approval to speed up, real estate sales pick up affect new credit in June or significantly increase, thereby squeezing the interbank asset size. Less new foreign exchange is the continuing impact of the important causes of the banking system liquidity.
The European debt crisis clouds scattered, not the market nervous yet relaxed; market supply and demand contradiction is difficult to reconcile the poor shipping, steel prices, combined with the end of the quarter the fund shortage, steel enterprises in order to speed up the shipping speed, price, or will be further lowered. Expected to fall in the Steel City in July after the first stable probability, taking into account the cost of support, the decline is expected in 50-80 yuan / ton.
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