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France, the revitalization of economic difficulties

The French National Assembly elections has ended, the leftist resulting power, not only has the President, Prime Minister, also occupies an absolute majority of seats in the Senate and National Assembly. French Prime Minister Eero left in the National Assembly majority to enable the Government to further the implementation of presidential policy agenda, but he acknowledged that in recent years, the French economy in decline, a lot of work put in front of the new government, in particular, is to restore a balanced budget, restore economic growth and employment.

French media pointed out that, although the left-wing would be all powerful, but the difficulty has only just begun. Ruling at the beginning of the same five years ago, Nicolas Sarkozy government, compared to France's economic situation more severe.

First, France has to bear the huge fiscal deficits and debt. In 2011, the French budget deficit reached 103.1 billion euros, accounting for 5.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), public debt accumulated up to more than 17,000 million euros, accounting for 85.8 percent of GDP, are much higher than EU standards.

Second, France's weak economic growth. The previous government is expected to France this year, economic growth rate was 0.7 percent, Fran?ois Hollande, the new government is expected this year's economic growth may be 0.5%, while the Bank of France is expected the French economy in the second quarter and first quarter of the same, to maintain zero growth, the annual economic growth rate ability to reach 0.5% is still unknown.

Third, the French high unemployment. French employment center data show that the number of unemployed in France in March this year, the 11th consecutive monthly rise, the local number of unemployed increased to 2.8845 million people, reaching the highest level since September 1999. French National Business Employment Federation (UNEDIC) predicted that France this year, the number of unemployed will increase by 21 million people.

Fourth, the French international competitiveness continues to decline. Relevant statistics show that the French labor costs for the past decade increased by 39.2 percent, declining export enterprises, 2011 France the number of export enterprises to 117,000, from 130,000 in 2000, a decrease of 11%. French foreign trade deficit in 2011 reached 70 billion euros, a record high. The crisis in the French "de-industrialization" has increased the past three years, France has more than 900 factories closed, manufacturing loss of more than 100,000 jobs. Government after the parliamentary elections, going on to deal with difficult layoffs of many enterprises.

At the same time, the debt crisis in Europe presents a growing trend, this month, the international rating agency Moody's cut the rating of the euro area a number of banks, including France, the People's Savings Bank and the French Chamber of Commerce and Industry Bank of Credit and, last month, Moody's has lowered SG the rating of the banks and agricultural credit banks, BNP Paribas but retained within the list of re-evaluation. Recently, the credit rating service agency Egan, Jones, released research report, to France's sovereignty debt rating from "A-" down to "of BBB +", reason is in the context of "the deterioration of the French credit status as well as French banks need to get support," the, "French banks is likely to make the country under pressure. "

Despite the difficult economic situation, the Hollande prescription for the country and Sarkozy's "fiscal austerity", and more inclined to expand investment and increase economic growth. Make appropriate increase in public expenditure (annual increase of 1 percentage point) in order to promote economic growth. To reduce the fiscal deficit and make up the funding gap caused by the pension reform, expanding welfare, not to increase VAT by increasing the wealth tax, corporation tax adjustment, the introduction of financial transactions tax and reduce tax incentives to increase fiscal revenue of Fran?ois Hollande, the Government intends to .

But the French still cut the deficit while stimulating economic growth. Although the new power Moscovici, Minister of Economic Affairs said that France "without the implementation of austerity measures, can be realized in 2013 the budget deficit accounted for compressed to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the 2017 target to achieve fiscal balance. However, some economic experts believe that France may have to tighten fiscal and try to avoid the economic downturn. The new government is preparing a 2012 budget amendment to the law tabled in Parliament in July, Moscovici, recently revealed to this year's budget deficit fell to 4.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), goals, needs more than originally planned to cut 100 100 million euros deficit, which is the revised budget law task.

The bigger challenge is less than 3% of the proposed 2013 budget deficit to GDP during the next year, Hollande campaign is based on a 1.7% annual economic growth is expected, the latest OECD report is expected in 2013 France economic growth of 1.2 percent, the EU is expected to be 1.3%, some economic experts are more cautious, raised the French economic growth next year, less than 1%, which means that for compliance, France needs to cut more budget deficit. The European Commission and the French National Court of Auditors to reduce the national deficit will be a major challenge facing France.


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