Since the fourth quarter of last year, the Steel City, "is different from the usual" to weak market attracted wide attention. 2012 iron and steel industry has gone to six months when the transfer of the continue to expect that a constant flow of "frustrated", on the whole, the first half of the steel industry can be described as "multi-turn more twists and turns.
Steel City Panorama: the display prices fell sharply in the first half, the fundamentals of "weak weak faltering
"April" is a turning point?
Domestic steel ore price, coke price in the first half of varying degrees of decline, the decline in steel prices year-on-year decline in overall costs than mine coke, tons of steel profits have fallen sharply.
The average daily crude steel output exceeded 202 million tons of new high in April, architectural steel incremental, high yield to some extent inhibited the momentum of the rebound in steel prices, steel prices start to correct again in mid-April.
The diversification of exports of steel and iron ore imports a deeper level, the continued downturn in the international freight and iron ore import growth is greater than the self-produced growth, port stocks to new highs.
Industry as a whole: the level of profitability close to the financial crisis the most nearly, but significantly improved in April. Various indicators show that the steel fundamentals in the first half of the performance of the disadvantaged.
Market incentives "Forced" to various macroeconomic indicators deteriorated Forced favorable policies frequent
Macroeconomic indicators such as consumption, investment, corporate profits in the first half of a marked decline in price pressures also significantly reduced, in this case, the Government continues the end of last year, a moderately active monetary policy, but also launched a steady growth in all types of fiscal policy .
The industry is expected in the current domestic and external economic situation, the Government will also introduce a more detailed policy to regulate economic development and comprehensive fiscal and monetary tools to a full range of dynamic control on the real economy, investment-driven economic development will be characterized by becoming increasingly clear that the improvement in the macroeconomic situation is expected to increase as well.
Downstream was good, medium-term domestic steel excellent rating demonstrates the boom can still be of
Steel production to maintain a high level, the steel market is still showing the situation of supply exceeding demand, especially in eastern and central regions of falling demand and excess supply, part of the steel, steel traders have sales focus of the westward movement. Investment growth accelerated in the western region development, key projects increased, driven by regional industry chain development and improvement, the steel industry will also benefit regional development brought about by the growth in demand.
Steel downstream real estate, automotive, machinery and fixed assets investment and other indicators both showed signs of improvement, in addition, medium-and long-term domestic steel can still be a structural high growth, the industry is expected that steel prices will subsequently stabilize.
Although the European economy shrink on international mine coke price rebound constitute suppression, faced with a larger capacity running than the volume and price to cost less pressure situation, the domestic steel market is expected to go up, but the demand ring, profitability, significant recovery situation. In view of this, the industry authority to judge, the boom of the domestic iron and steel enterprises will be possible to enter the ring to the positive trend.
Currently, six months on the occasion, although not entirely sure steel prices at the bottom of the imminent, but the inflection point of macro policy and the broader market were more likely to have emerged, therefore the layout of the absolute return point of the steel stocks or relative income points need to be steel prices bottom bounce plus judgment.
The afternoon focused on the market uncertainty:
(1) the effect of domestic macroeconomic policies or worse than expected, the slow recovery of the fundamentals, continuing weakness in steel prices.
(2) demand in Europe, or better than expected, the international commodity and iron ore prices rebound.
(3) the effect of government control and elimination of steel production capacity of policy implementation or lower than expected 。
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