The domestic steel in the 17 weeks in a row to the inventory of the case, has been close to a relatively low level, but still higher compared with the same period last year about 1.2 million tons; and last week significantly reduced the amount of the inventory. The analysts believe that the steel market resulting in steel demand to fall back further, steel consumption has slowed the seasonal off-season, and good steel production capacity synchronous highs; late steel inventories will not appear sharp rebound may be. Steel shocks down the possibility of an increase.
According to the inventory monitoring system data show that, as of June 15, five varieties (wire rod, rebar, plate, cold rolled coils, hot rolled coil) steel community total inventory of approximately 15.75 million tons, compared with the previous week reduce the decline in the 97,000 tons of 0.61%; which rebar inventories amounted to 682 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons; wire of 1.785 million tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons; hot-rolled stock of about 3.894 million tons, an increase of 04,000 tons; cold rolling stock 1.74 million tons, reducing 06,000 tons; plate inventory of 1.505 million tons, increased by 0.3 million tons. Which hot-rolled plate stock rebounded slightly, analysts believe that the recent procurement of automotive and other downstream industries slowed down, together with the previous class price of steel prices is relatively good, steel rolling amount due to a slight increase. Other species because of the declining role of the upstream steel production capacity is relatively obvious. Post-end demand will continue to remain weak.
With the National Weather into the hot summer months, weather forecasts, weather rapid increase from the recent start, the temperature stayed above 35 degrees; outdoor projects resulting sharp drop in real estate development, highway, railway construction, and construction time affect the corresponding steel consumption; water conservancy and hydropower projects this year, investment overweight, but the current flood season approaching, such works in near-complete work stoppage. Occupy more than half of the consumption of the national steel market, the construction steel market, the actual end demand will face further weakening, analysts believe the late period of time, the domestic steel destocking rate to slow further.
At the same time as home appliances, car allowance policy than expected difference, even though the car new subsidy policy are working on, but difficult to play a significant role in boosting short-term sales. Global economic market continues to shrink, a direct result of China's industrial export orders has shrunk dramatically; significantly reduced the first five months of 2012, China's exports of machinery and equipment, automotive, home appliances and other relevant domestic industry production is obviously inadequate, making the steel related species and other digestive showing a weakening trend.
Look at the action of the upstream steel mills, after the first few months of continued high production, steel internal inventory nearly saturated. Production decreased significantly in late May and steel mills in the procurement of the raw materials market, long-term at a low level, resulting in raw material prices have showed a downturn trend since June, stabilized in a series of major macro-stimulated, and therefore billet and other parts of raw materials before limiting the production of relatively tight resources rose sharply; but relatively speaking, the cost of support still tends to the disadvantaged. Likely continue to remain range-bound in the downstream steel market is not really warmed up before.
In summary, I believe, to protect the housing project is not expected and the latest audit of the major projects needed for almost three months as the weather continues hot, the steel price trend in China will enter the seasonal stage of callback; preparation time; steel community during this period of inventory destocking spin-down, steel prices remained low volatility run trend, does not exclude a further decline in the bottom of the possible
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