China's crude steel and steel products in May were 61.23 million tons and 81.67 million tons, an increase of 2.5% and 6.3% respectively, the average daily production of 1.975 million tons and 2.635 million tons, down 2.2% and 2.5% qoq, respectively. According to CISA statistics, the average daily crude steel production of the key steel enterprises in late May was 1.6122 million tons, down 4.72 percent late ring ratio, the national forecast the crude steel daily output of 1.9596 million tons, down 3.92 percent late chain. Mid-May, late, domestic steel production, maintenance began to increase, steel stage production will help to improve market supply and demand.
Inventory, as of June 15, the steel of the major cities of the social stock of 15.44 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons as compared to June 8, a decrease of 0.3%. In addition, rebar social inventory of 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons as compared to June 8, less than 1%. Regionally, the Central South region ring decreased 51,700 tons, the fastest decline in the Southwest and northern regions of the social stock began to rise. This year's lighten up a longer duration, but for 14 consecutive weeks of decline was only 15%, In recent years, the smallest drop, a side note from this year's steel demand was weaker than previous years.
The demand side, the terminal purchases rebounded. As of June 15, the week end purchases of 2.5 million tons, an increase of 13.54%. Terminal purchases down for 7 weeks to rise. With this cycle of steel prices rebound in stock prices stabilize, the market procurement enthusiasm has increased, active trading has improved, but the total turnover is still low, the price is hard to constitute a strong support. Although the trader purchases rebounded, however, the bargain-hunting demand is rare. Both can be interpreted more cautious, also can not form a consensus understanding of the market price at the bottom of the downstream state of mind. The next week, demand will continue to test the release, sustained support is difficult to price formation.
Spot price rebounded National thread average spot price stabilizing. June 19, the national average price of 4075 yuan / ton, compared to June 8, up 17 yuan / ton. Jin Xincheng profit model Qingdao port iron ore spot price for the foundation, according to the national average price, net of tax estimates, June 19, rebar gross profit of 112 yuan / ton. Iron ore prices rise in steel prices stabilize. Iron ore Dan Pushi index quickly rebounded from early to 132.5 U.S. dollars / ton to $ 136.25 / ton iron ore down quickly estimate the gross profit from a relatively high point to a lower position. Cost steel prices some support, the latter must continue to focus on changes in iron ore prices.
Raw material prices, especially the rapid rebound in the price of iron ore, crude steel production capacity highs gates of government investment is expected to open, cut interest rates reduce the cost of funds, real estate is expected to turn a good sign, around to reproduce the line up to buy a house phenomenon, these rebar demand is expected to improve, driven by the price strength. Terminal purchases rebound is not to force, compared to previous years, and inventory remains high, indicating that at this stage the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. Together in anticipation of change for the better and the actual lack of demand, high inventory, rebar within a short sideways consolidation, the running time for space pattern will continue.
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