Xinhua News Agency issued a document that the Diaoyu Islands issue, do not stimulate each other do not do radical move has been stuck to a tacit agreement between the two governments since 1972. But the Japanese government's recent actions show that it has begun to break this tacit understanding. Deduction platform through a spider web game, we believe that the Diaoyu Islands crisis, the essence of the game's upgrade of China and the United States, or relax Forced domestic policy.

First, the Diaoyu Islands escalation of the crisis

There the Huangyan Island storm not yet subsided, the Sino-Philippine relations are still tense, the South China Sea countries the name of the wishful thinking of the Nansha Islands, and even together to bargain with the Chinese. Side beacon anew, after the Japanese guard politicians to go to the Diaoyu Islands "fishing" escort, the Diaoyu Islands crisis facing upgrade. Sources said that the The Diaoyutai three places again set sail to Diaoyu Islands to the for action regardless of the outcome, would lead to the Diaoyu Islands issue continues to heat up.

Since the Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara is a high-profile announced the purchase of the Diaoyu Islands plan, the Japanese forces the parties to step forward on the Diaoyu Islands issue, apparently come prepared. From the establishment of the donation account, the question of Congress members inspect until the organization politicians to go to the Diaoyu Islands "fishing", the Japanese Government is already a semi-public's support, and even sent the provocative behavior of the Guard ships to escort the Japanese people on the Diaoyu Islands. Can be predicted that the domestic general and the maintenance of stability pressure forced the Chinese government will make the corresponding measures if the Diaoyu Islands is smooth to the Diaoyu Islands waters, which reflects the Government's attitude.

There is no doubt that Japan is to stir up with the troubles of the Diaoyu Islands, with the backing of the United States is not unrelated to, the essence of the Sino-US confrontation. With high-profile announcement to return to Asia-Pacific strategy, Sino-US game is being upgraded in the South China Sea, East China Sea, the Huangyan Island confrontation is just the beginning, the Diaoyu Islands issue, or just the continuation. The European debt crisis and global recession, falling incomes and unemployment lead to complex and turbulent national political situation. In this context, nationalism and extremism are often able to swoop in domestic conflicts and contradictions between countries are more likely to intensify outbreak. Under normal circumstances, the market would be expected, but obviously limited and insufficient.

Two, the Sino-US Game Forced policies of relaxation

We believe that the current market, the main attention is concentrated on top of the European debt crisis and reform, but have neglected the importance of Sino-US game. We believe that with Obama and Romney's campaign entered a critical stage. Sino-US political and economic and even military aspects directly or indirectly, the risk of conflict is increasing.

The political front, the United States will be continued pressure in the periphery, and interest areas. Surrounding areas in the East China Sea territorial disputes in the South China Sea. With the backing of the United States, and Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines and other countries attitude or further tough, the Nansha Islands and Diaoyu Islands dispute could face upgraded even the risk of misfires. Interest region, including Iran and Syria and North Korea, Syria is facing a civil war, Iran may also be involved in the conflict, these sensitive political factors are likely to become the tools of the game between China and the United States.

The economic front, the U.S. government will continue to attract dollars reflux, including US-owned enterprise of U.S. re-investment to boost employment and increase government tax revenue, there are signs that the U.S. unemployment situation has changed. As labor costs continue to rise, China's capital outflow of FDI and foreign exchange will show a downward trend. In addition, although the yuan against the U.S. dollar trading range have been relaxed, and the yuan bull restrictions have also been liberalized, but the U.S. will continue to put pressure on the RMB exchange rate, or force the yuan against the U.S. dollar exchange rate more substantial appreciation of the increase in exports to China and reduce trade deficit.

We believe that this situation in the External and Forced domestic policies to further relax. The economy, the need for maintenance of stability, income distribution reform is expected; in the U.S. to attract U.S. dollar return of the case, the process of internationalization of the RMB will grow faster, the RMB interest rate and exchange rate market-oriented reforms, or the opportunity to speed up; monopoly power, petrochemical, and other reform of the industry will break the ice; further easing of monetary policy is expected, the central bank will further lowering deposit interest rate cuts to increase market liquidity; In addition, regulators, or to speed up economic restructuring, investment in emerging industries as well as energy saving and new energy policy for consumer subsidies may be released. Political and military aspects of territorial islands dispute facing the upgrade, the ship military industry will be the focus of support for national strategies.

Comprehensive point of view, the crisis of the essence of the Diaoyu Islands is the upgrade of the game between China and the United States, or Forced relaxation of domestic policy. Based on behavior analysis, the future society in urgent need of quality health care services and health care, biomedicine is expected in the near future investment and development by leaps and bounds, our bio-pharmaceutical industry market opportunities.


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