The analyst believed that, the main economy maintenance economy downward trend, the whole world commodity market is implicated this the overall shake is spatial.In the entire in June, under the price center of gravity will move, seeks in the new sector supports and launches the reorganization will be the domestic time city movement master line.(On 11th) the trend speaking of this Monday, is announced the weekend in May economical data influence, the principal variety performs Gao Kaidi to walk hopefully the quotation.
Last week the trend overall was weak
On June 1, US announces in May non-agriculture employment data is lower than the market largely anticipated, also the unemployment rate rise, the investor pessimism spread, the large amount commodity continues to fall generally, this the domestic commodity trend constitution attacked greatly to the beginning of the last week, on June 4 the investor panicky mood performed the acme, 5 varieties appeared fall stop.Although the investor anticipated once urged the large amount commodity resilience to the policy stimulation, but the entire week performance since looked the overall weak trend, the article China finance and economics commodity index has still created in August, 2010 the new low.A minute variety looked that, the most varieties continue to appear the varying degree falling, but splits up obviously, among, the energy chemical industry tectonic plate decline range is big, in the agricultural product tectonic plate grain class trend is strong, PTA, plastic and rubber decline range all above 5%.
Looked from the volume of business change, because last week the market both sides undulation characteristic was obvious, the short line fund frequent turnover caused the commodity whole to deliver once again actively, Yangtze River stock Shen illuminated the track demonstrated, the commodity daily average volume of business was 908,700,000,000 Yuan, on a week increase surpassed 2 tenths, three big tectonic plate daily average volume of business appeared the varying degree same time the increase, in which energy chemical industry tectonic plate and the agricultural product tectonic plate increased range is big, close 40%, the metal tectonic plate increased approximately 1 tenth.
On Monday quotation or Gao Kai
Beijing Intermediate stage Research institute Chair Wang Jun believed that, in May the domestic macroscopic economical data presents “two happy four sorrows”, the futures market quotation will have certain influence to June 11, the domestic futures market principal variety will walk Gao Kaidi.
So-called two “happy”, creates monthly historical new high and the price level in pairs including May import and export scale creates 23 month new low, thus has provided the space for the second half year central bank relaxation monetary policy.“Sorrow” then mainly manifests in four aspects, one is expends the growth to be slow, in May the social consumable total volume of retail sales link compared to grows 0.84%, expends is insufficient to the economical growth contribution drawing ability; Two is the investment in the fixed assets speed-up is low, in May the investment in the fixed assets link ratio grows 1.15%, speed-up 1- in April recedes 0.1 percentage point; Three is the industry increase in value with grows 9.6% compared to the reality, but surrounds compared to only grows 0.89%, in the tradition 5- in July our country manufacturing industry enters the production off season, this meant the PMI index can continue downward in afterwards two months; Four, the additional loan will maintain the slow growth, mainly grows the entity economical demand implicates slowly.
“The main economy maintenance economy downward trend, the whole world commodity market will be implicated this the overall to maintain the shake spatial trend.” Wang Jun believed that, the domestic principal variety time price center of gravity moves the overall under, after the experience short-term resilience will seek in the new price sector supports and launches the reorganization, this also will be in June market movement master line.(On 11th) the trend speaking of this Monday, the domestic time city principal variety walks Gao Kaidi, the Shanghai copper, Lian Dou, Zheng Tang and so on active variety hopeful small scale Gao Kaihou shakes recedes, then energy chemical industry variety weaker, will capture in front of the last week decline range the sanchia Shanghai rubber, PTA, Lian Su follows close on the international oil price, the shake downward trend is more remarkable; In the agricultural product the grain, the fat variety performance is strong, small scale Gao Kaihou will maintain on Monday rises the trend, but Zheng Mianshou the fundamental plane and the beautiful cotton and kapok implicated still have the possibility to create 20 month new low.
In addition, “on June 17 the Greece election result, in June Spain crisis becomes the new storm center, in June Federal Reserve discusses the rest conference to declare and in May Europe and America is newest the macroscopic economical data all to have to pay attention closely.” Wang Jun indicated that, at present is invariable to the futures market maintenance whole spatial operation mentality.
Shen will illuminate also believed that, the domestic commodity overall trend is as before weak, especially energy chemical industry tectonic plate, in agricultural product tectonic plate grain class because wheat's head blight hypes walks strongly, but considered the wheat harvested already is basic finished, the endurance which hyped is very difficult to continue, the grain class will flush Gao Hou to be able fast to encounter the dead end ambush once again without doubt.Has not changed in the commodity median line weak trend under the background, the partial prices still will be in the historical top digit the variety still buy the spatial first choice.Must explain specially, the part continues the decline range big variety short line not to be suitable continues to pursue spatially, after the steadiness may wait for the resilience continues to buy spatially.
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