Last weekend, the macroeconomic data for May bottoming signs of stabilizing inflation mitigation policies provide a certain amount of relaxation preparation space.

Since the spread of the debt crisis in Europe and the international economic situation is uncertain, some scholars have called for, should cut the deposit reserve ratio and further tax cuts. But said that close to the decision-making departments, should take advantage of economic downturns, as soon as possible the implementation of structural adjustment should not be over-stimulation.
Import and Export: surprise

National Bureau of Statistics announced on June 9 major economic indicators in May There are four main performance First, the above-scale industrial real growth rate closed at 9.6% compared with the year-on-year in April, rebounded by 0.3 percentage points; fixed asset investment growth to continue slowed down in May to close at 20.1%, and further approaching the market to maintain steady growth of China's economic investment that the lower limit - 20%; consumer nominal growth rate of 13.8 percent last month slowdown, but the actual increase speed 11% from the previous month increased slightly by 0.3 percentage points; Fourth, the consumer price index (cpi), 3.0%, the industrial producer price index (ppi) for 1.4%, and both continued to decline.
Import and export data at the same time, the General Administration of Customs announced yesterday a pleasant surprise.

Customs statistics show that May exports of $ 181.14 billion, an increase of 15.3 percent, much higher than last month's 4.9 percent, and First Financial chief economist at research predictive value of 7.6%; imports 162.44 billion U.S. dollars, up 12.7 percent, far higher than last month's 0.3 percent.

Hai Tong Securities chief economist Lee Thunder, told reporters that the rebound in exports in May because of the sharp rebound in exports to the United States, imports rebounded sharply the more obvious signs would seem to imply that the economy bottomed out, maybe three quarters of China's economy will touch the end of a rebound. But he also believes that the month's data alone, more difficult to judge whether the second half of the import and export will continue this strong performance.
Domestic demand: to stabilize? Weak?

The parties to the main focus of the Chinese economy is domestic demand, but it is precisely at this point, analysts interpret macroeconomic data for May are now slightly differences.

Chief Economist of the Economic Forecast Department of the State Information Center Zhu Baoliang said in an interview from the industrial and consumer data, industrial and consumer growth is stabilized, while the investment data in addition to real estate investment growth slowed rapidly, manufacturing Industry investment growth remained stable, so the overall judgment is that the demand side of the Chinese economy is still relatively strong.

But the Global visibility (ihsglobalinsight the) economist Thornton (alistairthornton,) and Ren Xianfang believe that the only good news is that behind the weak data in May, cpi reach its lowest level since June 2010, and further easing of credit stay out of the space. However, ppi June 2011 compared to the cumulative fall in nearly 9 percentage points, has been a marked point to deflation; If combined with the Bureau of Statistics announced in May industrial producer price index (pmi) purchased fell by 1.6% situation to determine China's domestic manufacturing activity appears to have a considerable downturn.
However, Ha Jiming, the Department of Chinese Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs Investment Management believes that, although some of the most important economic indicators since April were below market expectations, but the current economic conditions remain good in 2008 and 2009. At that time, the collapse in exports led to many workers unemployed, the employment situation is still good, This can be seen by the current wage increases.
On the economic trends in the second half, some economists expect the third quarter rebound trend.

In addition to the cit Li Thunder's point of view, Zhu Baoliang also believes that the heavy industry to the inventory of China's economic slowdown, has lasted more than seven months away inventory process from the fourth quarter of 2011, is expected to the second quarter, the adjustment is completed. With the steady growth in the national series of policy measures introduced, the industry went to the inventory process will gradually accelerate the current economy has bottomed out after the third quarter will show a gradual upward trend.
External demand: in the second half is still optimistic about the
On the other hand, the continued instability of the external market in May, the rebound in exports is more like the incident in the fluctuations in the situation.

Export geographical point of view, in May, the exports to the United States, Japan and ASEAN rose sharply, while exports to Europe, reversing the previous negative growth trend. It is worth noting, 1 May, China's rapid growth in bilateral trade between Russia and Brazil, respectively, for 36.3 billion and $ 33.23 billion, an increase of 24.4% and 10.9%.
However, it seems in a considerable number of export-oriented enterprises, still optimistic about the coming year.

Overseas sales as the industry's leading enterprises, Zhuhai Gree Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Gree"), general manager of Shaw friend told this newspaper that the Chinese air conditioning industry this year, export sales in the second half of the year up to last year, is likely to decline about 10%.

Among them, the EU market influencing factors the largest industry as a whole in the first half of the EU market, sales fell 50 percent, Gree also dropped by nearly 10%. In addition, the unfavorable political situation in the Middle East region has also brought pressure.
Rely mainly on the second half of the summer back to school "and Christmas orders Liu Sinochem Guangdong Chemical Corporation (hereinafter referred to as in the chemical industry"), the second half of the case can hardly be optimistic about the global The largest sodium hydrosulphite manufacturer, customers are newsprint, textiles, chemicals and printing and dyeing industry.

Zhongcheng Chemicals deputy manager Yang Xiaochuan told this newspaper that the company last year, export volume is 70,000 tons, has taken the initiative this year down to 60,000 tons.

In the euro zone tensions continued to deteriorate at the same time, the Chinese government is also under way to countermeasures. According to "China Daily" reports the Chinese government is drafting Greece to exit the euro area after the response options. Ministry of Finance and Commerce Department are involved in the development of response options.
Policy: You can not rely solely on relaxation

External demand, the risk of continued domestic demand, the situation is more uncertain background, the policy recommendations of economists are biased in favor of the comprehensive "combined", rather than simply "relax".

The central bank cut interest rates by 2.5 percentage points since June 8, Tsinghua University, China and the World Economy Research Center Director Li Daokui newspaper reviews said, the central bank in this action, only a short period of stable economic growth is expected behavior, to prevent the economy from excessive drop .
"Despite the economic downturn itself to eliminate backward production capacity, but too much like the rapid decline from the sauna to the cold water bath, is not conducive to the development of the real economy. Need to impose a certain buffer, to avoid excessive decline in the pain caused, but also stabilize the capital market is expected to avoid worry too much. "said Li Daokui.

In his view, should be more lowered deposit reserve ratio, the short term, its effect than cutting interest rates is more obvious.
Li Xunlei is expected that this year there will be a 2 or 3 times to adjust the deposit reserve ratio. In addition, given the current in the positive interest rate period, interest rate cut is still open.
Addition to the moderate relaxation of monetary policy, fiscal policy as the representative of a structural tax cut is also great hope.
Li Xunlei, the focus should be placed on a structural tax cut export tax rebates, in order to ease the pressure on the export sector, in the field of encouraging industrial upgrading can also be further tax cuts.
Li Daokui also believes that in order to avoid the loose monetary policy is only the large state-owned enterprises and local governments benefit, must be supplemented by further tax cuts for SMEs.
Investment: strict control of the direction

As for stable investment, economists generally reminded him to the field of investment and efficiency, and can no longer engage in repetitive construction.

Such as Zhu Baoliang said, the current implementation of the stable investment policies is necessary to grasp the direction, speed up the country needs power, high-speed rail, urban public transport and other infrastructure and major strategic projects, may lead to redundant construction projects for capacity expansion can no longer engage a.
Close to decision-making departments have also told this newspaper that the overall economic potential gdp growth in a cyclical downturn, should conform to the rhythm and intensity of this trend adjustment policies, implementation of structural adjustment as soon as possible take advantage of the opportunity to endogenous slowdown in the economy to maintain moderate economic policies to relax, or stimulate excessive economic growth, but overheating.

SASAC Research Center of the State Council, Hu, late on from the recent attitude of the Development and Reform Commission and other macro-control departments of these institutions on the appropriate regulation of the position is more clear, but the specific implementation, I am afraid it is difficult to grasp the past, "a newspaper that grasp on the dead, a place of chaos "ills is difficult to cure, so the appropriate degree of regulation is the greatest test of the macro-control departments.

Li Daokui, the introduction of targeted policies to guide the funds to enter the construction field with a long-term effects, such as the protection of housing construction, the construction of water conservancy facilities, water pollution and public governance projects.
The Economic Commission of the CPPCC National Committee, deputy director of China International Economic and Exchange Center, executive vice president Zheng newspaper highlighted that the current round of investment is not the same place in 2008 to encourage private investment, to expand their entry into the field, as the focus of the start of domestic demand.

However, the Management Co., Ltd., general manager of Shanghai day strong wish wave good newspaper that whenever the economy is running into the adjustment, the government often will attach importance to enhance private investment, but some actions are often difficult to implement. Although the various ministries the introduction of intensive "36" to implement the rules, but actually does not appear in the past by industry planning and other forms of private investment to set up physical barriers, remains to be seen.




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