If say, hungry consequences is very little food, only then from the current endorsement situation, no need support, blind as market news and boosted with inflation, then the result can only be: demand not rise, steel price rises more formidable also will drop too more formidable. At the end of may the endorsement rebound, perhaps only businesses in the heart of the best up excess performance, after all, did not see any market demand improvement, the rising price of steel is still times show lack of power. So in June may will still remain cautious operation, because of the rise of demand is decided the reversal of the final endorsement conditions.
 
Although in May, countries in response to the economic data before April downward and emergency take a series of stimulating consumption policy, has reached the goal of steady growth, so many large project examination and approval accelerating pass, home appliance subsidy policy implementation, car countryside policy be vividly portrayed, etc. Only may PMI index released to the market looks hot again market to a cooling, whether HSBC data published or official data that may PMI index in a low, manufacturing is still show weak, the domestic economy still has downside risks endorsement overall demand remains weak.
 
So if the economic data again downside in May, then the country will be ready for any new policy appear? So people thought of the rate cuts, and still not symmetric rate cuts, which only cut lending rates, alleviate the domestic numerous corporate borrowing costs and pressure, after all, so long as has the investment will have development. Thus the market expected to cut interest rates increase, the businesses are waiting for the boots can be born to cut interest rates in June. But the higher labor costs and excess capacity also exists, the possibility of a relaxed monetary policy is not big, and benchmark interest rates decline is slow, more of a stable is expected signal effect, to the real economy stimulation effect or limited.
 
Let alone countries in the real economy increase investment to spur demand development, but from the project examination and approval to start to experience is a long time, although the recent rumours examination and approval accelerated, development and reform commission "impossible on large-scale investment stimulus plan, just to speed up the approval a batch of 1025 has design project of trepidation, whether to let a businessman at we wake up. And the steel market clinch a deal only in the news after coming on stage to stimulate the part of the terminal and watching the demand of middlemen the purchase, difficult to continue to maintain at a high level. So, part of the steel grades last weekend to a rebound in this week has begun to recede, and building steel, steel billets, welded pipe the price also has shown up fatigue phenomenon.
 
From inventory slow down can see the growth of demand is extremely slow speed, according to inventory data statistics, by the end of may yet, until the end of may, the national 29 main city social inventory will decline for steel 15 weeks, inventories for 8.8269 million tons, more than last year 13 weeks of continuous down cycle, but still is the lowest by calendar year. Inventory continuous keep down, that there are still some rigid demand endorsement of quantity, the growth in demand is extremely slowly, inventory decline also slow speed, this market psychology became worse, so steel price continuous drop also seems to matter.
 
Last month, baosteel, wuhan, anshan, leading manufacturer of sheet on June plank ex-factory price, in addition to steel plates outside, wuhan, anshan product price cut is common. Shazhousteel June 1 issued a building steel producer prices, still mainly to lower the tone. So from the point of view of the steel mill, the late to price trends remain cautious attitude, because the market is still can't see the real needs, and finally to make steel price back can be a downstream demand.
 
And see the downstream demand, real estate is still adhere to the regulation does not relax; The high speed rail project very not easy to start a construction begins, the critical problem frequency, high iron trough way is not qualified, heilongjiang the first high iron the eia illegal accidents have been stopped constantly, China's high iron again touches society's nerve; And home appliances, automobile market for some time ago to demand not free, production and sales decline for months, at present has built up a higher inventory, so even if the policy implementation, perhaps also first has a inventory; and Mechanical manufacturing also shows that downturn. So overall, in the short term downstream demand can back up how endorsement?
 
So it seems, in domestic and international economic environment of the overall decline, although recent macro face to the good news, stimulate business heart fragile nerve, market confidence has boosted, but even in various positive influence, if not demand this factor again inside, so multiple positive influence is thrusting steel price ran high, rise is still weak state, then face is not only after long decline. Therefore, the businessman in the market operation, should pay more attention to the macro side stimulation policy endorsement of the downstream industry needs the progress, because only demand picks up, can let endorsement back.




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