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Steel exports than expected the price is possible

Steel import and export is steady and fall, ore import prices shakeouts. According to the customs statistics, China import and export in April steel year-on-year are eased back. Export 4.67 million tons of steel in April, a decline in March 360000 tons, month-on-month drop 7.15%, year-on-year drop 2.1%. 1-4 month accumulative total export of 16.82 million tons, an increase of 10%.
 
China's imported steel in April 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 140000 tons in March, annulus comparing fell by 11%, year-on-year drop 17.5%. 1-4 month imported 4.54 million tons, 18.3% year-on-year drop.
 
Quarter steel exports than expected, 4 y/y slipped a bit. April 4.67 million tons of steel export, import steel 1.13 million tons, amount to 3.54 million tons of crude steel net exports, 1-April crude steel net exports crude steel 12.28 million tons, an increase of 26.3%. April steel export average $961.03 / tons, down 3.81% year-on-year.
 
Steel export tendency and this year is basically the same as last year, the price of the larger, at home and abroad to the export of steel sent in the first quarter than expected, but this year 1 quarter China had the "double the investigation" for the highest number of history, and April international steel prices into seasonal downlink channel, steel base price gap down, the price of China's export drive support will abate, consider to 6-August for the rainy season and the hot weather is the traditional slack demand steel, steel exports dropped probability is increasing.
 
Domestic ore peatlands and the port high inventory force slow iron ore import. Imported 57.68 million tons of iron ore in April, more than a decrease of 5.18 million tons last month, 8.23% year-on-year drop. 1-4 month imported 244.86 million tons, an increase of 6.39%. Since this year, China's iron ore imports all valence smooth picks up, April average price of $138.83 / tons, because China's stock has been a high iron ore port, in February a record 101.49 million tons of historic highs, therefore quarter has been in low iron ore import average wandering, although into the 4 month average daily production in our country after steel repeatedly hit a record high, but subsequent marginal incremental limited and high inventory will suppress the iron ore imports up.
 
We think the present level of output growth industry late limited, foreign demand are into seasonal lows, the domestic steel price shocks the building, the price at home and abroad in the short term continue to erode, on the export of pull role will hasten the weak.
Steel exports dropped probability is increasing.




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