1, steel industry production has a record supply has exceeded demand contradiction
 
The national bureau of statistics, according to figures released in April 60.575 million tons of crude steel production in China, annulus comparing fell by 1.6%, year-on-year growth of 2.6%; Steel production 81.069 million tons, an increase of 7.9%. April crude steel average daily production to 2.019 million tons, an increase of 33000 tons than in March, more than 2011 years June 1.998 million tons of level, creating a new record. The steel association XunBao data shows, may occurrence peak crude steel production in the national average estimate of 2.025 million tons, and is still in a higher level. At present the market demand is relatively weak, the steel output of continuous high, further intensifies the domestic steel market supply pressure.
 
Information research center of steel production monitoring maintenance data showed that in May, a number of maintenance in April steel increased significantly, the building materials production in May is expected to yield 100000 metric tons of maintenance effect, section 240000 tons, plate (including the strip) nearly 500000 tons, but in the fourth quarter of last year overhaul case is still inadequate, if not effectively cut late steel mill, the real reason endorsement stabilising the difficulty is large.
 
2, steel enterprises inventory pressures increase social inventory continuing decline of steel
 
May the steel PMI index finished goods inventory is still in expansion interval, sinosteel association XunBao data shows, mid-may key large and medium-sized steel enterprise lean inventories have more than 1.2 million tons, reflect steel production enterprise inventory pressures still too large.
 
Steel social inventory continue to fall. Nets survey data shows that as of May 31,, the national steel social inventories of 15.949 million tons, more than 1.523 million ton reduction late last month, down 8.7% month-on-month, is the last month to inventory speed up 1.3%); Building 8.531 million tons of steel stocks than last month to a decrease of 1.187 million tons; Sheet inventory 7.418 million tons a month earlier, reduce 336000 tons.
 
Information research center survey of steel circulation industry PMI data display in May, steel circulation enterprise inventory level index in the interval further contraction, fell back to 26.4% a month earlier, down 7.1%, reflected the inventory survey enterprise pressure continue to decline. Steel social inventory decline in the hand and the market demand of the season have a relationship, even though endorsement is still weak operation, but demand remains or some, cause the steel material inventory continues to decline society; But on the other hand also and steel trading business operation mode changes has the very big relations, now a lot of steel trading business began to inventory, with low inventory and even zero inventory approach to reduce stock lead to financial pressure, there is demand from steel mills to directly home-textile to deliver the goods.
 
3, the original fuel prices continue to fall support cost weakened further
 
May the steel industry are the purchase price is continue to fuel last month dropped, and fell back range increase. According to market monitoring information research center show that by the end of May 31, domestic 66% dry iron essence pink, the grade of the average market price for 1093 yuan (tons price, similarly hereinafter), a late last month fell 57 yuan; India 63.5% powder grinding tianjin port futures reference price of $138, a late last month dropped $10.5. Coke in May prices continue to fall, taiyuan region level 2 YeJinJiao the national average for 1710 yuan a month earlier, falling $40.
 
The original fuel prices continue to drop, make steel price cost to support the weakened further. Information research center cost monitoring data shows that may cost of pig index was down in April 0.4 points, 131.2 points. From the great variety of monitoring 7 overall profit ability to see in May, with steel price that the continuing decline of the varieties profit space gradually narrowing, loss rate further widening, by the end of may, cold rolling plate and only 3 rebar still have profit, and level 3 rebar earnings range of tiny, close to the edge of the losses; Rather than alloy steel continuous casting square billet the largest amount of losses, more than 300 yuan; Narrow hot strip and contour losses range already more than 200 yuan.
 
4, new export orders index fell to shrink interval steel exports will continue to shrink
 
And the high exports in March, compared to our country export steel in April in slowing trend. According to the statistics, of our country export steel in April 4.667 million tons a month earlier, reduce 361000 tons, down 7.2% month-on-month, 2.3% year-on-year drop; Imported steel 1.126 million tons, month-on-month drop 11.5%, year-on-year drop 18.2%.
 
May our country steel industry suffered three up trade remedy survey, two of which are respectively the Turkey and Brazil in the steel plate welding peace launched the anti-dumping investigation, in addition to steel pipe pile is Canada with a "double reverse" survey.
 
In may the steel circulation industry PMI survey nets and China federation of logistics and purchasing the manufacturing PMI survey shows that may include steel production enterprise and steel circulation enterprises to export orders index continue to drop, all are in contraction interval, later steel exports or will continue to shrink.
 
5, steel new orders index down downstream demand expected policy thaw pulling
 
May in steel production enterprise new orders index fell significantly, reflect the downstream demand not optimistic. But from steel demand two indicators, the market demand although year-on-year rate of increase slow, but there is still a certain growth projects, reflect season demand remains still exists. The national bureau of statistics, according to figures released in April in 2012, the added value of large-scale industry, a real increase of 9.3% year-on-year, than a drop of 2.6% in March. From the annulus comparing look, April, industrial added value over the scale than rose 0.35% last month. 1-4 months, large industrial added value increased by 11.0%. 1-2012 in April, the fixed asset investment (including farmers) 7.5592 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, growth is 1-3 month dropped 0.7%. From the annulus comparing look, April fixed asset investment (including farmers) growth rate of 0.77%.
 
Recently the government to enhance economic growth to keep the policy support, and speed up the approval to guarantee the room, highway, airport and so on key projects, although policy still need some time markedly improved, short-term inside the steel market demand for substantial help is limited, but to the market




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