Recently, "in response to the downside risks, the government issued a series of economic measures to stimulate dense to downside risks" news, the four public opinion, speculation "fiercely". Whether from the stimulus efforts or involved, for the whole industry is in a period of losses will produce more steel positive impact. However, industry insiders are pointed out, the present situation of the steel supply exceeds demand to short-term changes, although economic stimulus policy drive demand, endorsement to comprehensive picking up, still to discuss, after all, there is also a process.
 
Dilemma "rise seedlings" now at first glance
 
Good digestive endorsement, still need to "more chew"
 
May 29,, domestic mutual now go up drop endorsement. Hot rolling varieties of solenoid and slightly rebound, cold rolling, the inertia of the plate in the fall. According to the market monitoring shows, the domestic main city Ф 25 mm level 3 rebar average price 4148 yuan (tons price, similarly hereinafter), than 28 rose $9; The domestic main city Ф 6.5 mm average prices for 4064 yuan upset, and 28 flat; The domestic main city 5.5 mm hot-rolled strip for the average price is 4169 yuan, up 28 3 yuan; The domestic main center city of cooling-plate 1.0 mm the average price is 5060 yuan, more than 28 fell $5; The domestic main city 20 mm plate average price, 4153 yuan more than 28 fell 14 yuan.
After more than a month after the last fall, this week, dawn finally open endorsement, of course, the biggest "support" than "a new policy stimulus" of the wind, the stock market forward revealed new market, steel spot market "rise seedlings" expedites is also expected. On the whole, the industry group bad-mouthing, the policy of the hand to reach, market confidence back sharply. But even so, we still need to be treated with caution, cannot treat STH lightly. After all, the sluggish economy, that makes the market to a serious shortage of steel demand, supply and demand more imbalances, and iron ore and high labor costs, bull flank,
China's steel industry in the industry this year the plight of losses, show that the worst has entered into the steel industry.
 
The personage inside course of study also said, since the recent, steel market price trend and fast-changing, in just half a month time, by the steel from around the Spring Festival concentrated and push the high production of steel price began to get rid of the shock u-turn acceleration down, what is the relationship between supply and demand in the short term what happened a drastic change to cause such influence, actually needs in the short term there may not be such obvious change, that what caused has so far down steel price, the price of steel is back in the years ago the starting point of the rising is whether to fall, or stabilising reason, it is need to carefully study the current special situation can change correct judgment.
 
Industry analysts XuXiangChun said: "the start of the project can slow down the economic downturn speed, but released such a signal, can stabilize the market for steel mentality, that makes the market collapse of the situation get better."
 
Steel price back to the starting point comprehensive thaw is not practical
 
In through a time of a modest fall Yin, after by peripheral bad focus on steel price of the influence of the low speed up outbreak, has now returned to the starting point. And steel factory orders in June is mostly flat open price, the industry says, mainly due to the low demand this year the situation has not been fundamental change, and steel trading industry in the recent credit risk and concentrated fermentation, lead to steel trader's "reservoir" role can't play, steel mill in productivity back to normal after of resources on the concentration into the market, direct market prices down.
 
The analysis, on the one hand, for steel mill pricing of the degree of marketization is not high, are generally the monthly pricing model to make, the price of steel to real-time changes insufficient, steel mills are currently worried about is the market can't digest lots of resources, whether from the capital and the downstream consumption situation analysis, a lot of resources are the backlog in steel mill hands, in this situation, the concentrated into the futures market seems to also become part of clairvoyance steel ship only means, a lot of TaoBao set down the futures price, and of the futures price was reduced and reaction in the spot price, circle formed.
 
Of course, stimulate the policy comes on stage in succession, the steel industry change of the status quo, no doubt, will play a positive role. From mentality perspective, good policy and the improvement of the capital market, make businesses see empty of extreme psychological easing, short-term market prices also have stabilised signs, but because the implementation of the related policy there is a process, transmission to the spot market also need at least 1 to 2 months time, so to say this turn good there is substantial endorsement major difficult, conditions and maturity.
 
But analysts LiHongLiang points out that hand to cathay Pacific, increase the infrastructure construction, will expand to the needs of the downstream steel and relieve the market for steel pessimism. "The economic recovery will determine the extent of the steel industry, the process of recovery."
 
But analysts have festival-look, steel market must fully warmed is difficult. "Because in general capability will tell, steel demand can't keep up with supply, in the short term to ease this demand and supply pressure is not easy, on the basic of the curing of radical need industry inside." But in the long run, large the start of the project, can increase the demand for steel market.
 
Macquarie latest research report also showed that China's steel cash profit margin for negative value and capacity utilization from 2000 at the beginning of the year has more than 95% to 83% last year. "if less than 90% capacity utilization, steel production enterprise, it is hard to have higher profit. China's steel its operating margin is one of the global minimum.
 
Steel price late trend projections: low operating, it is not likely to rebound sharply movements
 
Experts say the recent price movements of the steel moved back, in fact exist traders and the game of steel mill, steel mills and mines abroad quotient of game, only pay attention to this, can the price trend to form a correct judgment.
 
From the current market conditions look, steel mill comprehensive losses in the first half was settled, into after June, for steel mill itself also exists the problem of money collecting, once appear prices rebounded, steel mill the selling stock inevitable backlog, so recent steel price will also is in a low operation of the interval, it is not likely to rebound sharply trend.




Other News:
Steel price has gone back to the starting point to full thaw is not reality
See June steel price to go up to still drop?
Hangang ironmaking department optimization burden structure cost reduction
Sintering bearing
Inheriting the excellent enterprise culture, creating famous brand
Hangang LengGaChang according to process characteristics section
Hangang three steelmaking transformation ladle pouring system protection
Cylindrical roller bearing structure form is introduced