Facing the recent endorsement faced a grim, steel price shocks of the descending trend is still continues. The June gs endorsement? To this, tianjin metal materials business (union), li xing vice-chairman of iron and steel group WangJinSheng general manager in accepting our newspaper reporter to interview said: "release final demand, supply, and to the degree" inventory "status, steel export situation and macro policy and so on four big factors will interaction, steel price to common effect."
Slowly released final demand
 
Steel downstream in final demand is released, but progress remains slow, increase also too won't big, a moderate release. Real estate control policies by the continuing to affect, house prices continue to fall in the channel, the market buys a room to intend to fall to lowest in recent years, much to the currency wait-and-see give priority to, in real estate related industry downturn affected. Especially the household electrical appliance industry in just the past had to belong to the peak season 3 April production and marketing, and the data is not ideal. In the main application plank industry, machinery, home appliances, automobile, equipment manufacturing industry, shipbuilding and other industry performance are relatively slow, and market sales continue to stay low, manufacturers, funds are inventory tie up is heavy, continue to produce enthusiasm is low, for steel consumption rate slowed sharply.
 
In the future, many major infrastructure projects in the policy support will start in succession, but by financing capacity constraints, the progress of the projects is as difficult as expected, steel demand is also difficult to fast, larger growth.
 
Steel supply and inventory under the difficult
 
According to the steel association statistics, early may the national steel crude steel production daily estimates of 2.0453 million tons, a late April 2.035 million tons of production 10300 tons, hit a record high. For now, the enthusiasm of steel XianChan production is not high.
 
Although steel price down, but the ton steel mill profits remain certain space, in quantity of profit is still the dominant behavior. From the steel mills of recent action to see is not a massive reduction of, or signs of production, only partially steel mills have cut plan, a few steel stopped the electric stove. At present the national steel social inventory although already for 12 weeks down, but still at record highs, and the stock market to the relatively slow speed. According to industry information research institutions monitoring shows: May 7 ~ 11 this week, the national steel social inventory index of 187.22 points, than the previous week fell by 1.31%, 0.76% month-on-month drop speed slowing. The national steel social inventories is 17.0099 million tons, 226600 tons, though annulus comparing down, but still at a higher level. Steel price facing upward demanding, the present situation of the slow inventory decline, steel trading business mentality already is polarized, optimistic and pessimistic, according to a party to the. The pessimistic attitude to the steel trading business shipment is heavy, some even rise in prices of lowering the price of steel to realize the deal, lead to some of the high reduce small resources. And some of the capital strength, a large family of optimistic attitude to store up goods signs up significantly, this also is in some extent influence the process to inventory. Many businesses are in the hands of information integration, the late to each variety price trend to make a prediction, and accordingly to each time of the species and sold to make planning shipments.
 
Global economic growth in China fell drag steel export.
 
According to the latest statistics, April our export steel 4.67 million tons, annulus comparing a decrease of 360000 tons, decreased by 7%, up to a decrease of 100000 tons, fell 2%. Meanwhile, steel net exports in April for 3.54 million tons, for nearly two years of high times (march this year net exports for nearly two years the highest level). And, in
 
April by the unit price also export steel in March rose to $944.7 / tons of $946.3 / tons. Export trade friction in May in heating, international commodity prices are usually type fall will continue to fall back. From now see, the second quarter the American economy growth momentum slowed, the employment, real estate thaw degree lower than expected, at the same time the debt crisis have evolved into the euro crisis trends, crude oil futures prices keep falling or predict the recent commodity prices to start a new low, and in view of China's steel products of all kinds of trade protectionism also obvious look up, and gradually to the trend of the spread of emerging markets. All of which, will make a steel exports in June or may face greater pressure, steel exports will continue to fall, but slip velocity will not too fast.
 
"D stable" concept into the economic level
 
May 18 ~ 20,, the state council premier wen jiabao in hebei, liaoning province, jiangsu province, hubei, guangdong, shaanxi provincial economic situation six forum stressed that "to BaWen growth in a more important position". Vice premier li keqiang in jiangsu reviewing points out, the current to further improve the mechanism of boosting domestic demand, promoting investment, consumption and export coordination pulling, promote the eastern industry to an orderly transfer in the
 
Midwest. The research institutions expert thinks, "steady growth" policy mix will speed up investment project examination and approval; To speed up the launch encourage private investment in the detailed rules for the implementation of the new, promote private capital in railway in the fields of the investment; Continue on spending policies; Continue to maintain a positive fiscal policy, strengthen the tax, business tax to structural VAT, etc.; Maintain relaxed liquidity and interest rate environment and management to meet the real economy total credit demand. The second half of the program also scheduled start may start in the first half to advance to the examination and approval.
 
"In the near term, policy in the face market confidence began to strengthen the incentive effect, good policy appearing, present policy gradually increase the chance. Good resonance in such expected in June, the steel market stabilised probability." WangJinSheng finally said.




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