Many of the data showed that recently reported third quarter before the credit crunch has eased, industry insiders predict the fourth quarter will be increased overall liquidity, but the credit support to small and medium-sized enterprises need time to reflect certain effect. For the future of monetary measures, analysts think years down the reserve fund rate is possible, but first will execute the difference from the reserve ratio to start.

According to xinhua recently, about the credit policy relaxed, the industry by the end of the loan increase continuously reported. For three weeks in net receivables, central bank recently two weeks in the open market fund net on the implementation of the operation. Reflect currency "reasonable" degree of the 10-year Treasury yield on September 22, from the continuing decline of 4.09% to 3.74% on November 1. Promulgated by the people's bank of China and the latest statistics show that, in October, our country new RMB loan 586.8 billion yuan, a September 470 billion yuan appear bigger rebound.

Financial experts ZhaoQingMing think, a series of policy support, the promulgation of the supply of credit that become inevitable demand, four quarter is expected to credit relative three quarters will appear "loose" quite a lot.

"Though the Banks have credit plan, but early will also be adjusted according to the policy," ZhaoQing testified, "current credit have relaxed, this with the current signs on a series of policies to promote small enterprise development close relationship between the micro."

Citic bank credit management department general manager SunJianLin argues that, although the upper release "fine-tuning" signals, but does not change the big premise of tight monetary policy. "The size of credit or will adjust for directional increase to the national macro policy support, the industry, for example, small business loans and personal consumption loan field."

Chinese people's university professor ZhaoXiJun think, although at present eased policy, and obviously small businesses to tilt, but this does not mean that the enterprise of small credit demand can fully satisfy, measures won't immediate effect. "The bank is marketized operations, regardless of cost will not reckless expansion of small businesses. This year, the small business capital chain tight, defective rate is likely to increase, therefore, bank lending will also very cautious."

The fourth quarter or cut reserve rate

Zhongjin think, although credit expansion played a part catabatic short-term liquidity function, but the overall monetary conditions are still maintain tight. Zhongjin think, October macro data showed that inflation down situation preliminary establishment, and the economy, though slowing, but still was in the smooth slowdown. Because monetary policy main goal is to prevent inflation, therefore, monetary policy will not be in the tone of the steady continue to fine-tune, the main way will still be open market liquidity resources. Years may cut reserve rate though, but first will execute the difference from the reserve ratio to start.

 
In the gold center thinks research, the next phase monetary policy will be more relying heavily on the open market operation of the flexible adjustment, is expected to continue to put on the net is given priority to, maintain reasonable market liquidity moderate and optimization capital distribution, adjust expire structure. At the same time does not rule out the fourth quarter for new foreign exchange combines fall and the open market due to reduce and reserve funds obvious factors such as liquidity to capture tight, and cut the possibility of moderate reserve ratio



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