Banking liability management three quarters of alarming pressure.
According to 16 listed bank for the third quarter, ended September 30, A shares 16 listed bank, deposit A total of 54.8 trillion yuan, at the end of the second quarter annulus comparing A significant cut in the 95.265 billion yuan. Among them, the deposit annulus comparing at the end of the second quarter with 10 of the decrease of the bank, including the construction bank, bank of China and the agriculture bank, move, nanjing bank, hua xia bank, ningbo bank, citic bank, minsheng bank, shenzhen development.
"Previous figures showed the M2 M1, growth is slowing, especially M2 growth further down to 13%, has to show that a bank LanCun pressure. As for the loss of the increase to deposit, the estimation is into the folk lending." Banking chief analysts QiuZhiCheng securities held for reporters said.
But in a listed Banks nantong branch a deputy governor, it seemed, three quarters of deposit down effect is exaggerated. "Late September deposit data down to be late and half the comparison of data, and the end of June savings data there is a 'empty to add" components including margin deposit assets, and pulled some short-term savings deposit, and more blunt point at the end of the third quarter this part of data is down."
Exactly how the truth?
10 Banks deposit atrophy
"In fact every month every year, the central bank will have new new lending, these loans should bring out new lending, these loans should be derived from the new deposits, so every month deposit will be better than the growth of the last month, just because the reason, make blunt point data distorted." He says.
However QiuZhi admit to, just from point to see 3 quarter the distortion of the data at the end of the deposit down is not accurate. "Late July, and the bank deposit more data on June has greatly decreased, may say that the cause of the table. But late September bank deposit will also flush high." He thinks, the actual supportive of a financial take off media is the reason.
"Supportive environment has also increased the bank deposit, currently estimated suction pressure from bank deposits, referring to the main flow into folk lending market." QiuZhiCheng says, "into the folk in the field of borrowing funds derived the ability of the deposit will fall in deposit growth slow."
According to the reporter statistics, annulus comparing at the end of the second quarter, at the end of the third quarter of the decline of the bank deposit in the bank 10 home, among them, nanjing bank, the construction bank, hua xia bank annulus comparing drop is bigger, huaxia bank and nanjing bank deposit annulus comparing end of June deposit balance did fall by more than the 3%; Construction bank deposit is down 1.6% month-on-month, five line loss highest savings.
"So far, deposit down is the main current deposit down, not only the nanjing bank, the other bank is similar. The reason is current credit nervous, some enterprises in bank loans, stock return after liquidity in the bank, so less short-term deposit is also reduced." Nanjing bank ShangZhe secret to reporters by new says.
In addition, he says, at the present time the tightening monetary policy makes total capital is down, so the bank loans and deposits in reducing derived.
But the vice President think, current deposit reduction is not all enterprise capital flow caused by tension, also the "date assessment" of the cause. "In order to improve the end of June 1, bank deposit slip at high cost. And in the short term interest absorb late September, blunt point pressure didn't June so big, so this part of current deposit reduced."
From the data to see by the central bank in June this year, the bank rushed store point after the effect, and in July 668.7 billion yuan RMB deposit sharply reduce. The central bank September require commercial Banks to keep the dispatch of National Day holiday deposits, loans smoothly, September 30 balance and the October 8 deposit balance is not more than 5 ‰, objectively inhibit the bank blunt three season the impulse of the deposit.
The vice President also revealed that, through the assets of the deposit is also on the decline pull, this part of the deposit is mainly through the bank acceptance, the margin deposit drive. "September the capture of New Deal, bill discount interest rate reached record high of acceptance operation caused greatly decreased, led directly to the unit of security deposit down".
Data from the central bank, late September, the national financial institutions in the deposit deposit deposit for unit 4.6279 trillion yuan, annulus comparing August plunged 100 billion yuan.
October is not optimistic
According to the nanjing bank dong ShangZhe introduced new secret, from October to see, and the bank deposit situation is still not optimistic, "deposit a downward trend continues, deposit is still difficult to pull".
Some in the industry analysis, at present China's foreign currency reserves in lower, foreign exchange gap annulus comparing significantly lower, and also responsible in part for the settlement of exchange to reduce, foreign exchange is partly cut gap source.
"Deposit loss to the bank to bring in long-term performance of pressure loss. Deposit limits the growth of the size of the bank loans, although the bank this year there are still spreads improve performance to price of factors for, but is not sustainable for a long time." QiuZhiCheng says.
The latest report said the au, from the third quarter report see, bank debt management pressure increase, income growth inflection point is beginning, banking fundamentals starts to go weak.
"Promote deposit return are the focus of future monetary policy." The Yangtze river securities (think, the credit crunch, supportive, short-term financial product actual limited release caused loss, so the future policy deposit for the table of the assets of the limitations may strengthen, strict management financial products distribution, force money back, actual mitigation will also enhance supportive deposit attraction.
High think, although deposit liabilities management increased difficulties, but be hope can effectively save deposit of the actual supportive ease, the bank is not welcome, "bank to protect spreads, do not like to see the liability costs rise sharply".
"The deposit is to reduce national macroeconomic regulation and control policy objective cause phenomenon, is tightening the role the inevitable performance." ShangZhe new says. Considering loans derived deposit mechanism of the restart, deposit growth may solve such as a currency cycles, the credit limit loose or save must rate cut, thus to bring bank funds loose, deposit effect increased.
Our vision: CPI has been highs as, in a fixed deposit and only 3.5%, firmly negative effect persistent lead to savings will further reduce. The bank recently released three quarters of collective performance report, "deposit blood loss" also concentrated




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